June 6, 2015 | 10:00 am
Cedar Rapids Gazette
My friend Andrej Matisak senior reporter for the daily
newspaper Pravda in Slovakia asked me this week why the field of
Republicans is so big and whether that’s bad or good.
My analysis is that a very big field is the result of:
1. An “open” election with no incumbent so many different contenders want a chance to sell their ideas.
2.
The wide-ranging diversity of Republican voters — The latest Des Moines
Register/Bloomberg Iowa Poll shows that Republican likely caucus goers
are almost equally divided on some issues:
* Subsidies for ethanol or wind power: For 45 percent, Against 46 percent (and this is a HUGE issue in Iowa the leading ethanol and second wind state)* Protecting Americans from terrorism more important than privacy 49 percent agree but 42 percent disagree.* The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) infringes on rights of landowners Agree 44 percent Disagree 51 percent.
The
other Register/Bloomberg poll question asked if candidates should spend
a lot of time talking about the following. I’ve chose a few interesting
examples.
* Cost of college 50 percent No, 50 percent Yes* Abortion Yes 48 percent No 51 percent* The candidate’s religious beliefs Yes 42 percent, No 58 percent* Same Sex marriage Yes 38 percent, No 60 percent. This was the big surprise since Republican candidates have been vigorously pushing this issue.
There is obviously room for many different
positions by Republican candidates on these issues. That’s why each of
the 10 and soon 15 Republicans running has some percentage of GOP caucus
voter support. It’s good that there is so much diversity in the GOP
field because it engages voters and encourages them to participate. It’s
like the cereal isle at the grocery — there is a cereal (candidate) for
every taste.
However, it is obviously impossible to
have an orderly campaign with this many candidates because they need to
accumulate enough delegates state by state to get nominated and if each
has 10 percent of delegates no one will achieve the magic number.
Some
such as Jeb Bush, may not do well in Iowa or New Hampshire but he
probably can win the Florida primary election so this primary season
could drag on. As you know, there are supporters for Rand Paul the
Libertarian Republican, all the way to the most extreme candidate such
as Pyush "Bobby" Jindal of Louisiana who is campaigning primarily as a Christian
on the primacy of God in America.
The Fox debate of 10
top contenders will be interesting to watch but I wonder if each debate
will feature a different mix of Republicans since they plan to only
invite the “top 10.” It’s not clear if it’s the top 10 in the Fox poll.
The great danger is that NO ONE candidate will have
enough delegates to get the nomination at the national convention in
July 2016. Then it will be a “brokered convention,” a bloody fight on TV
among the candidates to get delegates. Many “deals” will be made as in
the past. That will be interesting for the reporters and pundits and it
will be fun for the public to watch. BUT it will be stressful and
disruptive for the Republican Party as a whole.
Iowa
plays the role of letting many contenders compete. It’s role is also to
narrow the field before they scatter to the rest of the primaries and
caucuses. We’ve accomplished the first. Then, hopefully, before caucus
night the field will be winnowed down to a more realistic number.
To
explore these and other caucus issues in more detail, please join my
free Internet course on the caucuses that starts Sept 1. To reserve a
place, visit www.canvas.net/browse/iowa-state/courses/iowa-caucuses
• Steffen Schmidt is professor of political science at Iowa State University. Comments: Steffenschmidt2005@gmail.com
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