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Sunday, November 29, 2015

An Armed Planned Parenthood?

After the Colorado Planned Parenthood shooting there is now serious consideration given to training and arming Planned Parenthood workers.

The NRA always says gun free zones alike schools are the target of choice of shooters because they know there is no risk to them. Planned Parenthood, a very liberal group most of whose members are anti gun and unarmed is the perfect target.

I heard today that they are actually now planning to train key front line employees in the use of firearms, issue them body armor and high powered weapons. They have decided that police protection comes too late and they are a bulls eye for anti abortion activists as well as persons like the Colorado shooter who, as others have done before with PP, take matters into their own hands.

Liberals are opposed to the NRA and guns. In the United States that means they are the best target because, as I said there is no risk. The Colorado shooting may be the straw that breaks the camel's back on that questions. I can't imagine heavily armed liberals. Maybe that's the problem.


Friday, November 27, 2015

Iowa Presidential Caucuses: WHY is Donald Trump in Fourth Place in Iowa?

Iowa Presidential Caucuses: WHY is Donald Trump in Fourth Place in Iowa?: How Good are Political Polls in 2016? Steffen Schmidt Modern polling has move from the telephone to the Internet...

WHY is Donald Trump in Fourth Place in Iowa?


How Good are Political Polls in 2016?
Steffen Schmidt

Modern polling has move from the telephone to the Internet.

The reason is that many people no longer have telephones. The second is that even when called on their landline or cell phones, a huge percentage (as high as 80% and above) are no longer willing to answer polls.

Since a huge percentage of Americans have Internet access and are on the many social media as well as voluntarily answer online polls, Internet polling has become a significant and more relevant piece of the modern political polling.

Internet polling also allows for a much quicker cycle of tracking polls at lower cost.  For example, the Paris terrorist attack overnight required new polling on 2016 presidential contenders since it was probably a “game changer.”

Some of the best Internet polls actual use samples from panels of carefully screened respondents.

One very interesting development regards Donald Trump. Pollster
online polls favor one candidate. Ever since Mr. Trump rose in the polls, he has fared best in the online ones — sometimes by as much as 10 points better than live-interview telephone surveys conducted over the same period.
There are a number of possible explanations for Mr. Trump’s strength in online polling, which was first noted by Jonathan Robinson, an analyst for Catalist, a data firm associated with the Democratic Party.
One is that voters are likelier to acknowledge their support for Mr. Trump in an anonymous online survey than in an interview with a real person. Plenty of research suggests that the social acceptability of an opinion shapes the willingness of poll respondents to divulge it, and it’s imaginable that voters would be reluctant to acknowledge support for a controversial figure like Mr. Trump.”
 .
In the Iowa State University "traditional" scientific poll Donald Trump comes in fourth after "Undecided." Ben Carson has support from 27.2 percent, Marco Rubio is second with 16.7 percent; undecided voters are third, making up 16.2 percent; and Donald Trump is fourth with only 14.7 percent

It is true that online polls under represent minorities and lower income and education voters. However these groups are also much less likely to vote so the accuracy of the Internet polls such as SurveyMonkey, Reuters/Ipsos, Morning Consult, YouGov/CBS News may be a life saver for the declining traditional polling by phone or with clipboards at the mall. 
 .
Internet polling is still young and it will take several political cycles before the validity of these surveys is demonstrated. It will also take a few more years for the methodology and sampling algorithms to be refined. In the meantime we should watch polling results with care and be “critical consumers.” Remember that is a poll says 34% say they would support Donald Trump and 52% Hillary Clinton we cannot refute the validity of those polls until the caucuses results are in on the night of February 1. Also remember that surveys are most accurate minutes after they are completed. Most polls have a very short shelf life. 

Steffen Schmidt is University Professor of Political Science at Iowa State University and CEO of SEAS LLC Consulting.

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Iowa Presidential Caucuses: Paris Terrorist Attack: A Game Changer for 2016 El...

Iowa Presidential Caucuses: Paris Terrorist Attack: A Game Changer for 2016 El...: Dr Steffen Schmidt: posted in Washington Post 

 The Paris massacre is a game changer for the Iowa caucuses and the 2016 US presidential e...

Paris Terrorist Attack: A Game Changer for 2016 Elections

Dr Steffen Schmidt: posted in Washington Post 



The Paris massacre is a game changer for the Iowa caucuses and the 2016 US presidential elections.



Cut the US federal budget? REALLY! And how the hell does the United States "arm up" and defend the democratic western world?


Rand Paul is finished. So is Bernie Sanders. The priorities have just totally changed.

All the issues will be inverted.

The Des Moines Presidential debate will be completely different today as a result of this terrorist attack. 



Who will benefit?

Hillary and one of the GOP hawks. Probably someone with some "real" experience.

This is the end of the 2016 debates and campaign "circus."

US presidential elections are not a clown act. They are also not a sermon.



I imagine that Carson, Firorina, and Trump will drop in the polls. NO ONE wants to turn over their lives and the security of their families to inexperienced people.