tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-383489962024-03-12T16:35:35.648-07:00American Elections: The Dr. Politics JournalPolitical comments, and insights from 50 years of research and media analysis. I've been watching and analyzing US national politics since the "modern" Iowa Caucuses were created in Ames, Iowa, just a few blocks from where I lived.
Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.comBlogger132125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-62705593736126462152019-09-24T04:48:00.001-07:002019-09-24T04:48:26.248-07:00Religious Freedom Restoration and the Iowa CaucusesRecently we saw a volcanic eruption over the passage of laws by the Indianan and Arkansas state legislatures. These "Religious Freedom Restoration Laws" would allow any business to refuse service to customers who offend the religious principles and beliefs of the company owners.<br />
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In examining these laws we find that service would probably not be denied to people with disabilities. Neither would short people, fat people, women, people with a suntan, nor probably blacks and Latino's be refused service. There are specific laws that prohibit racial discrimination.<br />
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So, the conclusion is that service would be denied mostly to LGBT - gays and lesbians - because that's the beef some conservative Christians have with behavior that is sinful to them. <br />
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The problem is that in 2015 Americans have become more tolerant of gays and lesbians. The other problem is that state (government) intrusion in people's lives is dangerous. Where will it end? Will liberals have their own values that they will impose when in power? Or, are liberals (California) already ramming their principles down the throats of everyone? <br />
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So, supporters of this legislation apparently felt that protests against these laws would come from gays and lesbians and that could be dismissed and brushed off.<br />
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Indeed, before governor Mike Pence of Indianan signed the bill into law there were protests from the LGBT community and its supporters. In Arkansas these protests started even before governor Asa Hutchinson had signed the bill which he decided to send back to the legislature without a signature. <br />
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BUT, the unexpected eruption of opposition to the law came from the <b>business community</b>. Many large and important corporations and the NCAA expressed their concern. Many even threatened to yank their companies from Indiana and some prohibited travel by their employees to Indiana. In Arkansas the largest company Walmart voiced its concern even before the governor had a chance to sign the bill. (In 2019 California prohibited travel by government employees (including professors) to Iowa because the state removed medical treatment and services for LGBTQ persons.)<br />
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So how are IOWA Republicans responding to this challenge? One prominent Republican was almost HYSTERICAL about the long term consequences to the Republican Party "brand." That reflects the views of Whit Ayres, a Republican political consultant who has been quoted as saying gay rights and same sex marriage is not at the top of the list of issues that most Republicans want to press in 2016. Hes said, “The biggest issues among
candidates will be the ones among voters, which are the economy, health
care, education, ISIS, national security and so on.” <br />
<br />
In Iowa the owners of Gortz Haus, a florist, gift shop and wedding reception facilty, refused to book same sex weddings because homosexuality is against their faith. HOWEVER, Iowa law prohibits such discrimination. they were interviewed on TV and they clearly would wish Iowa would pass a law such as Indiana and Arkansas. Fourth District Congressman Steve King was also upset that the Governors of Indiana and Arkansas decided to amend the laws to prohibit discrimination against gays. He said the people had spoken and members of the House and Senate of both states passed the laws and they should be implemented. <br />
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Texas Senator Ted Cruz, in Iowa to launch his presidential campaign also strongly supported these laws saying that religious freedom was a funding principle of the United States. Of course it's not clear that if a gay couple walks into a bakery and wants to order a cake they are also forcing the owners of the bakery to endorse homosexuality. They probably just want to buy a cake. On the flip side, if two people of the opposite sex who are not married and are sinful fornicators having extra marital sex come into a flower shop will the owners ask them if they are sinners and refuse service? <br />
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Most Republicans running for president supported the laws even before they were signed and then "unsigned" by the two governors. Jeb Bush quickly backpedaled when he saw that conservative, Republican, corporate executives objected to the laws.<br />
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Some Republicans believe that these laws are like an IED that is very dangerous for the existing GOP rift between religious and <b>social conservative </b>Republicans who are opposed to gay rights and " ... the pro-business wing of the party that sees economic peril in the fight."<br />
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When Walmart says "NO!" and the social conservative wing says "YES!" to this legislation you know there is some serious "thinking" in to be done by the GOP. Give in on your values and yield to growing opinion or stick to your principles? <br />
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<br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-66632400288678327772019-09-24T04:37:00.001-07:002019-09-28T06:41:27.593-07:00<b>The 2020 primaries and caucuses</b> will be the most tense but interesting in modern history.<br />
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Never has there been a president like Donald Trump. Not since the late 60's has there been such a deep division in the Democratic Party between left and right. Rarely has there been a world in greater threat (climate change) and disruption (the Middle east, North Korea, the Chinese challenge.)<br />
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I will follow these events diligently. I have been analyzing American politics since 1969. I have seen a lot. I am scared about what lies ahead for us this time around. The 2020 caucuses, primaries and election in November will be epic. Hopefully in a good way.<br />
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Radio celebrity Arnie Arnesen created a huge stir in the Democratic caucuses & primaries. In my<a href="https://youtu.be/TsvglmRtXV4" target="_blank"> interview with her</a> (I do her radio show The Attitude every week) she said that Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders should retire from the 2020 campaign (and retire period!) She also excoriated Sanders for being a "Democrat of convenience" so to speak. He has run as a Dem but after losing the 2016 nomination he abandoned the Democrats, did not encourage his supporters to vote for Clinton, and generally reverted to being a Socialist. <br />
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<br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-2684417547191943862016-05-01T10:00:00.003-07:002016-05-01T10:01:24.548-07:00Seattle police, businesses prepped for May Day violenceMayhem! Violence! Riots! And Donald Trump is nowhere near Seattle! <br />
The media forgets.<br />
When the demonstrators blocked Trump in California the media said "Well, it's his fault. He has been spewing divisive language and attacking immigrants."<br />
What did the City of Seattle do to deserve the May 1 demonstrations?<br />
<ul>
<li>Globalization. </li>
<li>Racism.</li>
<li>Corporate America.</li>
<li>LGBTQ discrimination.</li>
<li>Micro aggression.</li>
</ul>
<br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-19029811652258940552016-03-07T05:10:00.001-08:002016-03-07T05:10:31.198-08:00Dr Politics - CTV News Channel 'The race goes on' U S primary CTV News<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rjfwha6TqQw" width="480"></iframe>Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-82286367884358946082016-02-23T06:24:00.001-08:002016-02-24T03:56:24.855-08:00How Bush Super PAC Frittered Away All the Money. Read this article. My focus groups said, "Now voters can truly say, "Thank GOD Bush dropped out! If this is how his people think money should be spent then think of how they would have spent taxpayer money!"<br />
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<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/us/politics/jeb-bush-campaign.html"><img alt="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/us/politics/jeb-bush-campaign.html" border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5vKyCEnWSPWyaFMj6uEOyRgJedoUnREfZu0TQaXf_wfNSHV6wQx0Yd13YoSKLxAq6rEpJNYW5W6A8mlwd3Q20c5cRXpVPskyKFJigYVxrLgRy943pXeOUSeq_LwK-B72CFp6m6g/s640/jeb+%2524%2524%2524.tiff" width="616" /> </a></div>
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<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/us/politics/jeb-bush-campaign.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/us/politics/jeb-bush-campaign.html</a></div>
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$88,000 on "branding" Mr. Bush. These brilliant people used JEB<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>! </b></span></span>with that exclamation point as the original "brand." Had they ever heard of the last candidate who tried an exclamation mark and a red and black <b>checkered shirt</b> as his brand. You can look that up and see how well he did. (Oh, all right. It was LAMAR<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;">! </span></span>Alexander Senator from <span class="st">Tennessee. Ever hear of President Alexander? It was made fun of and because a huge JOKE! Why the hell would Bush's people go there? </span><br />
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94,000.00 "clubbing" to rise money. "Instead of spending last winter on the hustings of Iowa and New
Hampshire, Mr. Bush held off, using the first half of 2015 to raise
money in places like New York, Chicago, Texas and Florida." HELLO! Ever hear of the "ground game?"<br />
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$8.3 Million - ".. he and the group supporting him built one of the largest organizations of any candidate in either party." ... "Parasites no doubt!" as I heard a famous consultant shout on a talk show.<br />
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#10 million on consultants. "his team paid consulting fees to around 140 different companies or individuals,"How'd that work out? These people get paid, lose and then move on, get paid and lose again. I read somewhere that it was the same folks who got Mitt Romney elected to the White House .. Oh wait!!<br />
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<br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-55246630556711028062016-01-29T05:08:00.002-08:002016-01-29T05:10:33.900-08:00NPR January 29 2016We are on NPR today for a long segment <b>Here & Now </b>(starts at 1pm Iowa Public radio) HOUR 2, 20 past the hour. Listen to a passionate show.<br />
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Most media has been shallow and sensational. I bitched to NPR about that.<br />
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Other media have covered minutia that NO ONE CARES ABOUT!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfeCq42PvFSJh7RVlRj2CDl4KiJELGaysIrwtPuC1vzXnNfJZaOWJX5llybEgmff9bmrtUUH9ARjHDDkbIgE9ekWGzd-XHuXtNCRsK5xQDbt0wvkUrQFCj206GjYRobSuB2RzP9Q/s1600/NPR+office.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfeCq42PvFSJh7RVlRj2CDl4KiJELGaysIrwtPuC1vzXnNfJZaOWJX5llybEgmff9bmrtUUH9ARjHDDkbIgE9ekWGzd-XHuXtNCRsK5xQDbt0wvkUrQFCj206GjYRobSuB2RzP9Q/s400/NPR+office.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-17944443094259334272016-01-07T03:04:00.002-08:002016-01-07T03:09:03.015-08:00My Lecture at the Clinton Presidential Library<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
The University of Arkansas Clinton School of Public Service selected Dr. Steffen Schmidt, University Professor in Iowa State’s political science department, to speak as a William J. Clinton Distinguished Lecturer in their upcoming focus on the Iowa Caucus.<br />
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Schmidt, also known as “Dr. Politics,” was selected based on his international reputation as an expert in American politics, especially the caucus process. He joins other distinguished lecturers such as President Paul Kagame of Rwanda; former Prime Minister of Canada Kim Campbell; former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Henry Kissinger; Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer; civil rights icon Ruby Bridges; Nobel Laureates Muhammad Yunus, Wangari Maathai; and Leymah Gbowee; presidential advisers Harriett Miers; Karl Rove; and President and Secretary Clinton.<br />
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“When I received the invitation to speak at the Clinton School of Public Service at the University of Arkansas,” said Schmidt, “I thought – any time I get a gig where Karl Rove, James Carville, Madeleine Albright and Henry Kissinger have previously talked, I know I’ve died and went to Political Science Heaven!”<br />
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The first school in the nation to offer a Master of Public Service (MPS) degree, the University of Arkansas Clinton School of Public Service gives students the knowledge and experience to further their careers in the areas of nonprofit, governmental, volunteer or private sector service.<br />
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In addition to being recognized as a foremost expert on Iowa caucuses, Schmidt is also a global expert on politics. Dr. Schmidt regularly reports on American politics for the largest Venezuelan newspaper, is contracted by Turner Broadcasting for regular election commentary for CNN en Espanol, and consults international media such as Agence France; Press, EFE, the largest news agency in Spain; the BBC; and Deutsche Welle radio. He is also Chief Political Correspondent for InsiderIowa.com and maintains multiple blogs.<br />
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Schmidt coauthored American Government and Politics Today, which became the most widely adopted American Government college textbook in the United States. Now in its 18th edition, it was one of the first e-books on American government, and soon expanded to include Internet toolkits for students and instructors.<br />
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Integrating online technology and research in distance education strategies, Dr. Schmidt launched the first ISU Massive Open Online Course (MOOC), about the Iowa Presidential Caucuses, on Sept. 1, 2015. The course analyzes Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus presidential candidate selection process, the role of the media, and the future of Iowa Presidential Caucus.<br />
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JOIN me in my free, online course on the Iowa caucuses. <a href="http://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/">http://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org</a><br />
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<br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-57256618614842825062016-01-04T16:22:00.001-08:002016-01-04T16:22:29.655-08:00Dr Politics. Neil Cavuto Fox interview<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="344" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fmd1iPiMlxs" width="459"></iframe>Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-11584578875667039332015-12-08T02:13:00.002-08:002015-12-08T04:09:38.448-08:00US History of Exclusion and Deportation<style>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;">Donald Trump has shaken the news media with his suggestion that we should bar Muslims from coming to the United States. </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;">Here is a short history. This does not include the discrimination against every new wave of immigrants. </span></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;">1882.</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;"> The
Chinese Exclusion Act signed by US President Chester Arthur </span><span class="st"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-themecolor: text1;">May 6, 1882 not repealed
until </span></span><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-themecolor: text1;">repealed
by the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnuson_Act" title="Magnuson Act"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">Magnuson Act</span></a> on December
17, 1943.</span><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;"></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;">1942.</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;"> Japanese
internment. </span><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-themecolor: text1;">President
Roosevelt ordered the Incarceration of Japanese Americans during World War II
Executive Order 9066. Feb 19, 1942. </span><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;"></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;">1936.</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;"> Rejecting
Jewish refugees fleeing Germany from Nazi Germany. </span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">July
1938, a <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=6IaEAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA50&lpg=PA50&dq=fortune+poll+opinion+on+refugees+1938&source=bl&ots=CiUtVWog_-&sig=5WznfatLu15git589mw3nFz7_TY&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CDEQ6AEwBGoVChMI3uHbgIeWyQIVRzkaCh38PgoE#v=onepage&q=fortune%20poll%20opinion%20on%20refugees%201938&f=false">poll
by <i><span style="font-family: "cambria"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Fortune</span></i> magazine</a> fewer than 5
percent of Americans supported raising the quotas for political refugees mostly
Jews. 67% said "we should try to keep them out."</span><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;"></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;">1954.</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;"> Deporting
Mexicans by Pres. Eisenhower in the “Operation Wetback” Bracero program. </span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;">2015</span></b><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-themecolor: text1;">. On
December 7, Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump suggests that no
Muslims should be allowed into the United States. </span></div>
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<span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"> Don't be<b> surprised</b> at Trump's suggestion. It has its roots in many previous American policies. In times of panic and crisis (we are in such a moment now) people always become fearful of foreigners even if it is irrational and Constitutionally illegal. </span><br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">We should also be aware that anti immigration politicians have been gaining ground in Europe especially France where Marine Le Pen and her<b> National Front Party</b> may win the next election. The right is also growing in other European countries. </span><br />
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<span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">AND, France, the cradle of democracy is<b> closing three mosques</b>! (USA Today: "French authorities announced Wednesday they shut down three mosques for an alleged "pattern of radicalization.") </span><br />
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Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-9308643730134098182015-12-07T02:42:00.002-08:002015-12-07T02:42:15.297-08:00Cruz Carpetbaggers Coming to Iowa From Texas? <br /><br /><a href="http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/12/04/cruz-campaign-rents-des-moines-apartments/76778004/">http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/12/04/cruz-campaign-rents-des-moines-apartments/76778004/</a> <br /><b><br />Headline: Cruz campaign rents Des Moines apartments</b><br />"The Ted Cruz campaign is renting apartments in Des Moines to house volunteers it is importing from outside of Iowa ahead of the Feb. 1 caucuses. Called a ..." <br /><br />So, it says 500 volunteers from Texas will come to Iowa and work for Cruz. <br /><br />"Iowa HATES carpetbaggers, Steffen" texted my friend a prominent, smart ,Republican campaign expert. "The question is, he doesn't have enough actual "real" Iowans to canvass and campaign for him?" queried a Republican legislator who was a great student of mine at ISU about 16 years ago. "Stef, this is an easy bulls eye for Marco Rubio or Trump because "busing in people to Iowa" is the WORST thing a candidate can do - remember the Ames Straw Poll!? LOL!" - Hmm I agree.<br /><br />I texted back, "of course some of these people running against Cruz don't know Iowa politics and political culture enough to understand the implications of this new development. SO they may not see the strategic opportunity. Rubio needs to hire IOWANS, get yard signs out, distribute bumper stickers, and do face to face with ORDINARY Iowans." <br /><br />Also it's shocking that Trump has not asked Cruz for his actual official, government birth certificate. That will be an endless drip drip, drip because Cruz will NOT make it public - it's a CANADIAN birth certificate!<br />
<br />
<br /><br />Steffen Schmidt<br />University Professor of Political Science Iowa State<br /><br />Sent from my iPad SynkLink via my iPhone<br /><a href="https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/">https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org</a> Free Caucuses short course. Join me. Last one rolls out in January just before the caucuses.<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b> Fasten your seat belts! </b></span><br /><br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-3386834577389458062015-11-29T14:37:00.001-08:002015-11-29T14:39:36.507-08:00An Armed Planned Parenthood? After the Colorado Planned Parenthood shooting there is now serious consideration given to training and arming Planned Parenthood workers.<br />
<br />
The NRA always says gun free zones alike schools are the target of choice of shooters because they know there is no risk to them. Planned Parenthood, a very liberal group most of whose members are anti gun and unarmed is the perfect target.<br />
<br />
I heard today that they are actually now planning to train key front line employees in the use of firearms, issue them body armor and high powered weapons. They have decided that police protection comes too late and they are a bulls eye for anti abortion activists as well as persons like the Colorado shooter who, as others have done before with PP, take matters into their own hands.<br />
<br />
Liberals are opposed to the NRA and guns. In the United States that means they are the best target because, as I said there is no risk. The Colorado shooting may be the straw that breaks the camel's back on that questions. I can't imagine heavily armed liberals. Maybe that's the problem.<br />
<br />
<br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-71571884817664429662015-11-27T09:46:00.001-08:002015-11-27T09:46:57.703-08:00Iowa Presidential Caucuses: WHY is Donald Trump in Fourth Place in Iowa?<a href="http://iowapoliticalcaucus.blogspot.com/2015/11/why-is-donald-trump-in-fourth-place-in.html?spref=bl">Iowa Presidential Caucuses: WHY is Donald Trump in Fourth Place in Iowa?</a>: How Good are Political Polls in 2016? Steffen Schmidt Modern polling has move from the telephone to the Internet...Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-52964472513896241462015-11-27T09:45:00.000-08:002015-11-27T09:45:03.310-08:00WHY is Donald Trump in Fourth Place in Iowa?
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<b>How Good are Political Polls in 2016?</b></div>
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Steffen Schmidt</div>
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<br /></div>
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Modern polling has move from the telephone to the Internet.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The reason is that many people no longer have telephones. The
second is that even when called on their landline or cell phones, a huge percentage
(as high as 80% and above) are no longer willing to answer polls.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Since a huge percentage of Americans have Internet access
and are on the many social media as well as voluntarily answer online polls,
Internet polling has become a significant and more relevant piece of the modern
political polling.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Internet polling also allows for a much quicker cycle of tracking
polls at lower cost. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, the
Paris terrorist attack overnight required new polling on 2016 presidential
contenders since it was probably a “game changer.”</div>
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<br /></div>
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Some of the best Internet polls actual use samples from
panels of carefully screened respondents. </div>
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One very interesting development regards Donald Trump.
Pollster <span class="byline-author"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Nate Cohn</span> suggested that </span></div>
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<span class="byline-author">. </span></div>
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“ <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">… </i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">online
polls favor one candidate. Ever since Mr. Trump rose in the polls, he has fared
best in the online ones — sometimes by as much as 10 points better than
live-interview telephone surveys conducted over the same period.</span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">There are a number of possible explanations for Mr. Trump’s
strength in online polling, which was first noted by Jonathan Robinson, an
analyst for Catalist, a data firm associated with the Democratic Party.</span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">One is that voters are likelier to acknowledge their support
for Mr. Trump in an anonymous online survey than in an interview with a real
person. Plenty of research suggests that the social acceptability of an opinion
shapes the willingness of poll respondents to divulge it, and it’s imaginable
that voters would be reluctant to acknowledge support for a controversial
figure like Mr. Trump.”</span></i></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> .</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In the Iowa State University "traditional" scientific poll Donald Trump comes in fourth after "Undecided." </span><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Ben Carson has support from 27.2 percent, Marco
Rubio is second with 16.7 percent; undecided voters are third, making up 16.2
percent; and Donald Trump is fourth with only 14.7 percent</span><br />
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It is true that online polls
under represent minorities and lower income and education voters. However these
groups are also much less likely to vote so the accuracy of the Internet polls
such as SurveyMonkey, </span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Reuters/Ipsos, Morning Consult,
YouGov/CBS News may be a life saver for the declining traditional polling by
phone or with clipboards at the mall. </span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> .</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Internet
polling is still young and it will take several political cycles before the
validity of these surveys is demonstrated. It will also take a few more years
for the methodology and sampling algorithms to be refined. In the meantime we
should watch polling results with care and be “critical consumers.” Remember
that is a poll says 34% say they would support Donald Trump and 52% Hillary
Clinton we cannot refute the validity of those polls until the caucuses results
are in on the night of February 1. Also remember that surveys are most accurate
minutes after they are completed. Most polls have a very short shelf life. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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Steffen Schmidt is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">University
Professor</i> of Political Science at Iowa State University and CEO of SEAS LLC
Consulting. </div>
Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-88831830706127034872015-11-14T03:17:00.001-08:002015-11-14T03:17:06.568-08:00Iowa Presidential Caucuses: Paris Terrorist Attack: A Game Changer for 2016 El...<a href="http://iowapoliticalcaucus.blogspot.com/2015/11/paris-terrorist-attack-game-chnager-for.html?spref=bl">Iowa Presidential Caucuses: Paris Terrorist Attack: A Game Changer for 2016 El...</a>: Dr Steffen Schmidt: posted in Washington Post The Paris massacre is a game changer for the Iowa caucuses and the 2016 US presidential e...Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-16094557164399649152015-11-14T03:13:00.003-08:002015-11-14T03:34:24.716-08:00Paris Terrorist Attack: A Game Changer for 2016 Elections<b>Dr Steffen Schmidt: posted in Washington Post </b><br />
<br />
The Paris massacre is a game changer for the Iowa caucuses and the 2016 US presidential elections.<br />
<br />
Cut the US federal budget? REALLY! And how the hell does the United States "arm up" and defend the democratic western world?<br />
<br />
Rand Paul is finished. So is Bernie Sanders. The priorities have just totally changed.<br />
<br />
All the issues will be inverted.<br />
<br />
The Des Moines Presidential debate will be completely different today as a result of this terrorist attack. <br />
<br />
Who will benefit?<br />
<br />
Hillary and one of the GOP hawks. Probably someone with some "real" experience.<br />
<br />
This is the end of the 2016 debates and campaign "circus."<br />
<br />
US presidential elections are not a clown act. They are also not a sermon.<br />
<br />
I imagine that Carson, Firorina, and Trump will drop in the polls. NO ONE wants to turn over their lives and the security of their families to inexperienced people. Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-81856019901509953512015-10-24T04:42:00.003-07:002015-10-24T05:23:10.352-07:00Biden (and Chafee) Are out of the raceVice President Joseph Biden’s decision not to run for the White House
is a game changer. His earlier unsuccessful attempts were in 1988 and
2008.<br />
<br />
The Democratic field had been in suspended animation even
while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders built their campaign and raised
money.<br />
<br />
However, lurking behind the two front-runners was Joe
Biden. He has been sucking away 15 percent plus or minus and his
approval rating was very high.<br />
<br />
Speculation that he would wait
until after the Benghazi hearings to see if Clinton would be badly
damaged proved idle. He had agonized after the death of his son and did
not want his family to be dragged through the grueling task of a
campaign.<br />
<br />
This is not the first time a powerful contender has
agonized over running. As the New York Times reminded us, “Gov. Mario
Cuomo of New York left a plane bound for New Hampshire idling on a
tarmac in 1991 as he fretted over whether to run for president.”<br />
<br />
The specter of Biden created several distractions to the entire 2015-16 race to the nomination.<br />
<br />
First,
for the Democrats it delayed the decision by many powerful check
writers. Their anxiety over Hillary Clinton’s email and Benghazi
problems made them nervous and Biden seemed like a potential
alternative. Now they can make those commitments to either Sanders or
Clinton with most analysts giving the bulk of that new revenue stream to
Clinton.<br />
<br />
Second, the consolidation of voters in coming polls
will strengthen the field for the Democrats. Here in Iowa I met
literally hundreds of Democrats who were very interested in Biden and
hoping he would run. Now they will need to pivot to one of the other
candidates. Some may actually look at former Baltimore mayor and
Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley. Most will distribute themselves
between Clinton and Sanders.<br />
<br />
Third, the Republicans are very
disappointed. I spoke to and emailed with several of my best GOP
connections and they were very excited about a Democratic Party split
three ways. That would weaken the front-runners and to some extent pit
Clinton and Biden against each other. Now the Democrats enjoy the
advantage of a small field. Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee proved
unprepared to run in the first Democratic debate and Webb has already
dropped out.<br />
<br />
Biden will certainly remain a source of irritation
for Clinton especially on how to deal with the Republicans. Clinton
called them the enemy in the Democratic debate perhaps as a joke but she
has certainly been seen as the biggest target of Republicans. Biden
thinks Democrats should work across the table with the opposition. There
is also irritation over whether Biden supported the raid on Osama bin
Laden or not which Hillary Clinton says she fully backed.<br />
<br />
Overall
the take away is that the Democratic campaigns will now be much more
aerodynamic as it were with the turbulence of Biden removed from the
flight path.<br />
<br />
<br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-1574495520461090442015-10-18T04:44:00.002-07:002015-10-18T04:50:07.588-07:00Is Bobby Jindal Viable?I follow EVERY news story on election 2016. It is an amazing year and I get up at 4 a.m. every day so I can feed my horses and then get to work trolling the headlines. Iowa farm sunrises in October are FABULOUS so being up early is a real treat. <br />
<br />
This week Louisiana Governor <b>Bobby Jindal </b>has caught my attention.<br />
<br />
He is nowhere in the polls and has been part of the "Happy Hour" debate group, the kids at the little table with the happy meals while the adults eat from the regular menu. <br />
<br />
Now all of a sudden I see articles that say Jindal is rising in the polls in Iowa. I hear Iowa Christian political leaders say that Jindal is the guy with God on his side so to speak because all of the "brand" of Jindal has been about religion. I see that the Des Moines register plans to "interview" him in their board room. So there is this rising attempt to divert our attention to Jindal from Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Rubio, and Cruz who are floating at the top of the polls.<br />
<br />
HOWEVER, if you research Jindal you will find some information that raises serious doubts about Jindal and I'd kike to share those with you. <br />
<div data-contents="true" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0">
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<div class="_209g _2vxa" data-block="true" data-offset-key="abmlm-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$abmlm">
<span data-offset-key="abmlm-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$abmlm.0:$abmlm-0-0"><span data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$abmlm.0:$abmlm-0-0.0"><b>Headline: </b>"So Long Bobby Jindal?The Louisiana governor is running out of money, and his presidential campaign might be running out of time."</span></span></div>
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<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/so-long-bobby-jindal/410854/"><span data-offset-key="6qin3-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$6qin3.0:$6qin3-0-0"><span data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$6qin3.0:$6qin3-0-0.0">http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/so-long-bobby-jindal/410854/</span></span></a></div>
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<b><span data-offset-key="5ss57-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$5ss57.0:$5ss57-0-0"><span data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$5ss57.0:$5ss57-0-0.0">More Headlines:</span></span></b></div>
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<span data-offset-key="32oib-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$32oib.0:$32oib-0-0"><span data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$32oib.0:$32oib-0-0.0"><a href="http://www.thenewsstar.com/story/news/local/2015/10/16/state-revenues-topple-danger-lie-ahead/74095306/">http://www.thenewsstar.com/story/news/local/2015/10/16/state-revenues-topple-danger-lie-ahead/74095306/</a> </span></span></div>
<div class="_209g _2vxa" data-block="true" data-offset-key="dqcoe-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$dqcoe">
<span data-offset-key="dqcoe-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$dqcoe.0:$dqcoe-0-0"><span data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$dqcoe.0:$dqcoe-0-0.0">"Louisiana State Treasurer John N. Kennedy suggested that Gov. Bobby Jindal should return to Louisiana from his presidential campaigning in Iowa and make plans for budget adjustments now in order to avoid draconian cuts later in the budget year." Louisiana is more broke than the federal government. </span></span></div>
<div class="_209g _2vxa" data-block="true" data-offset-key="dfhv1-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$dfhv1">
<b><span data-offset-key="dfhv1-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$dfhv1.0:$dfhv1-0-0"><br data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$dfhv1.0:$dfhv1-0-0.0" /></span></b></div>
<div class="_209g _2vxa" data-block="true" data-offset-key="efpak-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$efpak">
<span data-offset-key="efpak-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$efpak.0:$efpak-0-0"><span data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$efpak.0:$efpak-0-0.0"><b>From the Times-Picayune</b>: "Eleven out of 15 GOP candidates raised more money than Jindal in the three-month period." Money is smart. They know a losing investment when they see it.</span></span></div>
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<a href="http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/10/bobby_jindal_presidential_trou.html"><span data-offset-key="fbicl-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$fbicl.0:$fbicl-0-0">http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/10/bobby_jindal_presidential_trou.html</span></a></div>
<div class="_209g _2vxa" data-block="true" data-offset-key="fbicl-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$fbicl">
<span data-offset-key="fbicl-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$fbicl.0:$fbicl-0-0"><br data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$fbicl.0:$fbicl-0-0.0" /></span></div>
<div class="_209g _2vxa" data-block="true" data-offset-key="fbicl-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$fbicl">
<span data-offset-key="fbicl-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$fbicl.0:$fbicl-0-0">So, is Jindal a viable candidate for 2016? </span><br />
<br />
<span data-offset-key="fbicl-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$fbicl.0:$fbicl-0-0">He may rise in the polls in Iowa where of 40% or so the GOP is very religious and very conservative his God-centered campaign may do well with them. However he is only at 4% in Iowa today. </span><br />
<br />
<span data-offset-key="fbicl-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$fbicl.0:$fbicl-0-0">The second state in line for presidential candidates is New Hampshire the second least religious state in the nation. In new Hampshire Jindal is at 0.0% in the latest RCP aggregate poll! <b>He scored 0%</b> in the Gravis, CNN/WMUS, and NBC/WSJ polls. How can anyone look at those numbers and say that Jindal is viable with a straight face! </span><br />
<br />
<span data-offset-key="fbicl-0-0" data-reactid=".0.0.1.$right.0.0.0.0.0.0.$editor1.0.0.$fbicl.0:$fbicl-0-0">Jindal is at</span><b> 0.6 percent </b>nationally which is a ridiculous number and he will be eliminated from the "adult" debates unless he hits 2.5% nationally which is also ridiculously low.</div>
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At some point people need to face the political grim reaper and drop out. Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee need to drop out. Pataki and James Stuart "Jim" Gilmore III need to quit the race. The day is coming closer and closer when Jindal also needs to say goodby and find some honest work. </div>
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Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-737457788344347582015-10-17T15:09:00.004-07:002015-10-17T15:09:38.305-07:00 Donald Trump Says George W Bush was President When 9-11 Happened
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">The 2016 race to the White House is FABULOUS! </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">Never have we had such tension, drama, excitement, odd and interesting candidates, and mud slinging with cruise missile intensity.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">The latest is when Donald Trump said:</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">“When you talk about George Bush – I mean, say what you want, the World Trade Center came down during his time,” Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"></span><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">After the host pushed back on the charge, Trump doubled down: “He was president, OK? Blame him or don’t blame him, but he was president. The World Trade Center came down during his reign.</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">The best posting I’ve seen on Donald Trump’s
comment that George W Bush was President when 9-11 happened is the following
from the Washington Post:</span><br />
<br />
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">Here is the brilliant
and accurate Washington Post item no doubt posted by an intelligence officer:</span></b></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">“U.S. intelligence
officials warned President Bush weeks before the Sept. 11 attacks that Osama
bin Laden's terrorist network might hijack American planes.</span></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">On Aug. 6, 2001,
President George W. Bush received a classified review of the threats posed by
Osama bin Laden and his terrorist network, Al Qaeda. That morning’s
“presidential daily brief” — the top-secret document prepared by America’s
intelligence agencies — featured the now-infamous heading: “Bin Laden
Determined to Strike in U.S.” A few weeks later, on 9/11, Al Qaeda accomplished
that goal.</span></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">In a memo from the
Phoenix FBI to headquarters, the agents recommended an urgent nationwide review
of flight schools "for any information that supports Phoenix's
suspicions" of a terrorist connection. The memo reportedly cited Osama bin
Laden by name.</span></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">And the C.I.A.
repeated the warnings in the briefs that followed.</span></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">Could the 9/11
attack have been stopped, had the Bush team reacted with urgency to the
warnings contained in all of those daily briefs?</span></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/opinion/the-bush-white-house-was-deaf-to-9-11-warnings.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/opinion/the-bush-white-house-was-deaf-to-9-11-warnings.html</a></span></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=91651&page=1">http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=91651&page=1</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
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Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-36388938213716231412015-10-11T04:01:00.002-07:002015-10-11T04:12:21.441-07:00High Taxes and High ProsperityThe grueling debate about taxes seems to be ignoring the historical record.<br />
<br />
The greatest period of American prosperity which was after WWII top marginal taxes for really rich people was:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
(1951), 91.0% income above $1,766,108<br />
<br />
(1961) 91.0% income above $3,071,492<br />
<br />
(1976) 70.0% for income above $807,009 </blockquote>
And the <b>tax loopholes</b> for the rich were very minimal so revenue could actually flow to the many important projects and functions that were the underpinning of the <i>general prosperity. </i><br />
<br />
In that period the United States built roads, bridges, a great military, fabulous education system, great universities, funded medical and science research which resulted in historic breakthroughs, and NASA went to the moon.<br />
<br />
American companies flourished and inventions, patents, and great new products were the envy of the world. <br />
<br />
American workers made good wages and good products. People had pensions and most jobs came with benefits.<br />
<br />
YOU decide what all this means.<br />
<br />
I for one conclude that high taxes didn't hurt the rich, they were still very rich. I was going to the university in 1964-68 in New York City and believe me the brownstones and penthouses on the toniest streets in the Big Apple were FABULOUS. The Hamptons were alive with the rich and famous. I've never seen more limousines and fancy-dressed doormen. The Four Season's was always overbooked and who could afford those great meals and wines! <br />
<br />
High taxes did not discourage investment and the creation of industries and jobs. In fact, it was the zenith of American prosperity. So why are we not looking back at that "golden age."<br />
<br />
That was before "free trade" agreements and super sophisticated schemes for hiding corporate and private income in offshore companies and numbered accounts in Ireland and the Cayman Islands? There were few to no "hedge funds" and much less predatory manipulation of capital.<br />
<br />
A few super rich do not a prosperous nation make. And in elections huge money was much less influential while today we see headlines in the<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/10/11/us/politics/2016-presidential-election-super-pac-donors.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news"> New York Times </a>such as, "From Only 158 Families, Half the Cash for 2016 Race." (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/10/11/us/politics/2016-presidential-election-super-pac-donors.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news)<br />
<br />
And it should be clear that during these glorious years there was very little accusation that all of this was "socialism" and Republicans as well as Democrats supported this model of governance. <br />
<br />
YOU can research income taxes at the official web site:<br />
<a href="http://taxfoundation.org/article/us-federal-individual-income-tax-rates-history-1913-2013-nominal-and-inflation-adjusted-brackets">http://taxfoundation.org/article/us-federal-individual-income-tax-rates-history-1913-2013-nominal-and-inflation-adjusted-brackets</a><br />
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<br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-14420183388460306932015-10-10T04:21:00.002-07:002015-10-10T04:21:35.329-07:00Ch 5 WOI AnalysisStay tuned to my more frequent analysis for the new channel 5 WOI TV political analyses and programs. We will be covering the debates and the interesting struggle to find a Speaker of the House.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWN7CtTxeHSgX3-3flhkNWmr0GBbq17za4NbxFAJ6ykjr4CBfAV0HnF_uQQqL2BlHLwgwy1tH1y11z8YiSe_CInqwx7doIDOQ-7Qnu-zLfzuCKDTnXYaLJMnIAE0UQBBGVlSuZIw/s1600/ch+5+Sunday+show.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="577" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWN7CtTxeHSgX3-3flhkNWmr0GBbq17za4NbxFAJ6ykjr4CBfAV0HnF_uQQqL2BlHLwgwy1tH1y11z8YiSe_CInqwx7doIDOQ-7Qnu-zLfzuCKDTnXYaLJMnIAE0UQBBGVlSuZIw/s640/ch+5+Sunday+show.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-48266345356209864372015-10-09T07:06:00.000-07:002015-10-09T07:06:15.908-07:00"Moderate, Democratic Forces."Here is our history on all of this: <br />
<br />
<b>President Jimmy Carter</b>. "Let's support the moderates in Iran now that the Shah has left." <br />Really?! <br />President Carter, WHAT moderates are those? <br /><br /><b>President W. Bush, "</b>Iraq will be a shining example of democracy now that Saddam is gone and it will pread throughout the Middle East (to more or less paraphrase.)" President Bush, how'd that "spreading democracy" work out?<br />
<br />
<b>President Barack Obama,</b> "We are supporting the democratic forces aligned against dictator Gaddafi in Libya and giving them NATO and US air cover."<br />President Obama, WHAT democratic forces in Libya are those?<br /><b><br />President Barack Obama</b>, "Let's support, train, and arm the moderate democratic forces in Syria." <br />President Obama, WHAT moderate democratic forces are those?<br /><br />Maybe the US needs to be pragmatic and ally itself with forces that have a realistic chance of actually winning and gaining power. In very violent countries moderate and "nice" political forces stand NO chance. Just look at the Weimar Republic in Germany. <br />
<br />
Remember what FDR said about Somoza in Nicaragua, "He's a bastard but he's OUR bastard?"<br />
<br />
The world is a sorry and violent place. Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0United States57.704147234341931 -108.98437533.568101234341931 -150.292969 81.840193234341939 -67.675781tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-64062656603444823322015-09-27T07:43:00.000-07:002015-09-27T07:57:24.588-07:00Politics and Neurons<br />
Sunday, September 27, 2015<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Politics and Neurons</b></span></div>
<br />
From the Ames Tribune<br />
Posted September 26, 2015<br />
Steffen Schmidt: Neurons and politics<br />
By Steffen Schmidt<br />
<br />
A neuron is “… an electrically excitable cell that processes and transmits information through electrical and chemical signals.”<br />
<br />
When we analyze political behavior we inevitable veer into the notion that people select from among alternatives and make conscious, self-aware, rational choices.<br />
<br />
A recent MIT study instead suggest that, “We are creatures of habit, nearly mindlessly executing routine after routine. Some habits we feel good about; others, less so. Habits are … thought to be driven by reward-seeking mechanisms that are built into the brain. This study is the first to show that cost considerations are wired into the learning of habits.”<br />
<br />
In other words people subconsciously take actions that they believe are cost effective.<br />
<br />
We can argue that politics, like neurons, is also an “excitable process” that transmits information.<br />
<br />
Just observe the 2016 race to the White House and you will at the very least see the “excitable” part.<br />
<br />
Politicians and the media rest on the premise that voters are well informed, knowledgeable, smart/intelligent, analytical, responsible citizens and comparative in their choices of candidates or political parties.<br />
<br />
I won’t trot out all the evidence that these may be rebuttable presumptions, in other words, assumptions that are taken to be correct unless someone comes forward to contest them and prove otherwise.<br />
<br />
Example: “Innocent until proven guilty.”<br />
<br />
There is lots of research that people are not well informed about most of the very complex economic, social, moral, and foreign policy issues facing the America.<br />
<br />
In fact, a large percentage of people cannot point to where they live when shown a map of the United States.<br />
<br />
Research shows that a substantial number of voters select candidates by their name.<br />
<br />
In some places, if your name is Kennedy people will vote for you just for the name. On the other hand, in other parts of the nation, that name is the kiss of death, regardless of the candidate’s position on issues.<br />
<br />
If we are indeed creatures of habit on many day-to-day activities as the MIT research demonstrates, we should consider the possibility that people also choose their candidates for president by responding to the firing of neurons.<br />
<br />
In fact, when people are interviewed in focus groups or at political events they often say they support a candidate because he is “strong,” “seems like a good leader,” or “looks presidential.” One woman at the Iowa State Fair said, “I just like Trump.”<br />
<br />
While the mainstream media rarely talks about it, some candidates just don’t look presidential by some generic, often subliminal, and probably “patterned” standard.<br />
<br />
Think of the 2016 contenders. Do any of them seem not presidential?<br />
<br />
We have a long way to go in the field of biopolitics which is associated with the work of Michel Foucault and his seminal lecture series at the Collège de France from 1970-84. Another new and cutting edge area of research is “Biological Political Science” as well as studies of genes and politics, which is also called “genopolitics.”<br />
<br />
John R. Hibbing, the Foundation Regents Professor of Political Science and Psychology at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln argues that, “Biology, not genetics alone, is the key and it is now possible to measure politically relevant biological predispositions with physiological, endocrinological, cognitive, and neuroscience techniques.”<br />
<br />
I realize I’m stretching the credulity of many of you reading this, but please keep an open mind. Political scientists are pushing the envelope on understanding political behavior. Hibbing’s essay, “Why biology belongs in the study of politics” in the Washington Post is well worth a read.<br />
<br />
What is the take away? Politics is not all that meets the eye. Some political behavior is hidden down in the neurons.<br />
<br />
How else to explain the Donald Trump phenomenon?<br />
<br />
Steffen Schmidt is a professor of political science at Iowa State University<br />
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JOIN my free online course. <a href="https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/">https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/</a><br />
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<br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-87122754053278158592015-09-26T05:57:00.000-07:002015-09-26T05:57:09.546-07:00Poor Carly Fiorina - <span style="font-size: small;">Presidential candidate Carly Fiorina says she rose from being a secretary to a business woman at Lucent Technologies and then CEO of Hewlett-Packard (HP). </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">My students listened to her here
in Iowa and they thought she came from a very poor family and maybe even a single
mother!</span><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">BUT, her dad was well educated, successful, and wealthy. His name was Joseph
Tyree Sneed, III. He was professor at Cornell Law School from 1957 to
1962, Stanford Law School from 1962 to 1971, Duke University School of
Law from 1971 to 1973, where he was Dean. Then he was a Republican U.S.
Deputy Attorney General and a member of the U.S. Court of Appeals for
the Ninth Circuit for nearly 35 years. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">She was actually born with a silver spoon in her mouth. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">In her first corporate job at Lucent things went very badly as the following observation by Rattner suggests. </span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i>"Soon after she left, Lucent veered off a cliff, and while she was never
the chief executive, part of the company’s collapse stemmed from overly
aggressive sales and loans to financially shaky customers made under her
supervision."</i> </span></blockquote>
<div class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="218" data-total-count="1667" itemprop="articleBody">
<span style="font-size: small;">Steven Rattner has written, </span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="story-body-text story-content" data-para-count="218" data-total-count="1667" itemprop="articleBody">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i>"Investors
were so down on her that H.P.’s shares jumped by almost 7 percent on
the day of her firing. And in ensuing years, she appeared on several
“worst C.E.O.” lists, including those of CBS News and USA Today.</i></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><i>
In 2009, Portfolio magazine <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2009/04/30/Portfolios-Worst-American-CEOs-of-All-Time.html?slide=3">ranked her</a>
the 19th worst C.E.O. of all time and described her as a “consummate
self-promoter” who was “busy pontificating on the lecture circuit and
posing for magazine covers while her company floundered.”</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-size: small;"> Really! </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">And most voters have never heard this. Donald Trump's criticism of her was diminished by his snarky comment about her face. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Rattner continues, "</span><span style="font-size: small;">She banked $21 million in severance payments as part of the more than
$100 million in compensation she received during what one critic <a href="http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/maney/2005-02-15-maney_x.htm">called</a> her “destructive reign of terror” (which included pushing for H.P. to acquire five corporate jets.)"</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Almost no one from her corporate life comes to her defense. She has not had a full-time private sector job since 2005. The buzz is that no one wants to hire her. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Then there is the latest information about her support for and contributions to the campaigns of Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and other liberal Democrats well narrated by Jeffrey Lord a former Reagan White House political director - See more at: <a href="https://www.conservativereview.com/Commentary/2015/09/Carly-Fiorina-Hillary-Donor#sthash.mcaKU4ZT.dpuf">https://www.conservativereview.com/Commentary/2015/09/Carly-Fiorina-Hillary-Donor#sthash.mcaKU4ZT.dpuf</a></span><br />
<div id="stcpDiv" style="left: -1988px; position: absolute; top: -1999px;">
Jeffrey
Lord is a former Reagan White House political director, - See more at:
https://www.conservativereview.com/Commentary/2015/09/Carly-Fiorina-Hillary-Donor#sthash.mcaKU4ZT.dpuf</div>
<div id="stcpDiv" style="left: -1988px; position: absolute; top: -1999px;">
Jeffrey
Lord is a former Reagan White House political director, - See more at:
https://www.conservativereview.com/Commentary/2015/09/Carly-Fiorina-Hillary-Donor#sthash.mcaKU4ZT.dpuf</div>
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Surprisingly the media has handled her with silk gloves. When she's interviewed or stories are written about her the details of this sketchy record and also the allegations about her personality are not mentioned. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">That's quite a disservice to Iowa and American voters. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
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Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-91416797329708286332015-09-24T08:26:00.002-07:002015-09-24T08:26:11.064-07:00What happened to Scott Walker?<b>Press Release, Not embargoed. For release Sept 23, 2015, 6:00 am Central Time</b><br />
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Iowa State University political science professor Steffen Schmidt, who leads a first-of-its kind free online course about the Iowa Caucuses, breaks down the factors that led the early favorite in Iowa to end his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.<br /><br />Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has suddenly dropped out of the GOP race to the White House.<br /><br />Why?<br /><br />First and most important he “peaked” too early and in a deceptive venue. It was the first political event of the 2012 race to the nomination. Sponsored by Iowa Fourth District Republican Congressman Steve King and Citizens United, the Iowa Freedom Forum was held on January 24 in Des Moines. In front of a select crowd of conservative Republicans 23 Republican notables and most of the presidential contenders at the time got lots of national buzz. At the end of the day pundits and many Republican politicians declared Walker the winner.<br /><br />BUT, it was a deceptively “friendly” crowd, he had not been tested in any national event, and no one questioned his very narrow experience in The Badger State.<br /><br />Second, he has been inconsistent in his positions on issues. Waffling, flip flopping, and weaseling on issues is not a very strong selling point. His most egregious uncertainty about issues was on “birthright citizenship.” Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution provides that, "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside." He flipped, flopped, and flipped again on whether children born to those in the US illegally would be covered by this principle. In reality the US Supreme Court has never ruled on whether children of illegal residents in the US are entitled to this principle.<br /><br />Third, he took a fateful trip to London to sell Wisconsin cheese. Problem is he got asked if he believes in evolution and he TOTALLY punted on that. He should have said, “NO, God created the heavens and Earth in six days and rested on the seventh. If you don’t like my answer you can shove it!” So he did not gain foreign policy experience on that trip he just got dissed.<br /><br />Fourth, he was "invisible" in the two GOP debates. Everyone said that the few minutes of time he had evaporated and he seemed to shrink back into the wallpaper. There was also the question of energy. He had even less than Jeb Bush.<br /><br />Fifth, I asked my students in a focus group what word came to mind when they see Walker in one of his many interviews on cable. The most frequent answer was "Goofy." The second was “Walmarter.” That is not a great concept! I was surprised because earlier Gov. Walker was seen as a nice Midwesterner.<br /><br />Sixth, I talked to several GOP operatives, most of them former students of mine. Their answer was that many Republicans and conservatives had parents or grandparents who were union members in the meat packing plants in Iowa. They made good salaries and were able to raise a family, buy a home, take vacations. When the unions were busted wages plunged and mostly immigrants were hired. They DO NOT LIKE Walker's union bashing, which is, of course, his “brand” as governor of Wisconsin. By the way, his implosion was also a bad hit to the Koch brothers political organization which had heavily backed him.<br /><br />Walker’s supporters claim that it’s all Donald Trump’s fault. That seems unlikely because Walker went from top of the heap to last in a spilt second. Why didn’t he go from top to second, third or fourth? See analysis above.<br /><br />When he quit the race he said it showed leadership. “Today, I believe that I am being called to lead by helping to clear the field so that a positive conservative message can rise to the top of the field. With this in mind, I will suspend my campaign immediately.”<br /><br />I guess that’s “leading from behind.”<br /><br />Enrollment is still open for Iowa State's online course about the Iowa Caucuses. Visit <a href="http://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/">http://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org</a> to learn more and enroll.<br /><br />Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38348996.post-56870398679540887612015-09-20T14:22:00.003-07:002015-09-20T14:26:44.731-07:00The Flood of Refugees: Again. A massive wave of refugees is streaming into Europe, desperately fleeing war and brutality in Syria and other countries. There is a big debate about what to do, how to stop this, what the consequences will be for Germany and other nations. <br />
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On the Statue of Liberty there is a plaque which reads "Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.” <br />
<br />
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0">Often people in the US did not live up to the Statue Of Liberty's "Emma Lazarus' sonnet, New Colossus, which she wrote for a fundraiser auction to raise money for the pedestal upon which the Statue of Liberty now sits." </span></span><br />
<br />
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0">They hated the Italians. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0">They hated the Irish. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0">They hated the Puerto Rican's.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0">"They" were all coming in, changing the culture, and "overwhelming" our nation. There was great fear of the massive wave of immigrants each time the wave crested. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0">We should remember that <b>everyone running for president in 2015-16 came from somewhere else</b> a few generations back willingly or enslaved. Their ancestors were greeted with as little enthusiasm as some of the European nations are expressing today. Yet, they became so successful they are fishing for the most powerful position on Earth (besides the Pope!) President of the United States.</span></span><br />
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0"><br /></span></span>
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0">Let's not forget that o</span></span><span class="_Tgc _y9e">ver <b>12 million people</b> were processed at the immigration station on Ellis Island alone. And there were many other points of entry for different immigrant wave to the US.</span><br />
<br />
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0">Most of those immigrants made America FABULOUS! We wouldn't have blue jeans without Levy Strauss, helicopters without Igor Sikorsky, abstract expressionism Willem de Kooning the Dutch-born American painter, Albert Einstein, </span></span>Arnold Schwarzenegger, Henry Kissinger, Eddie Van Halen who is considered one of the greatest guitarists of all time. I could go on but you get the point.<br />
<br />
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0">If the Europeans can figure out a way to welcome and integrate the new wave into their societies they too can reap huge benefits from such courageous people. In today's world almost no one is living where they are natives. Humans like birds are a constantly moving species. we need smart and bold policies to deal with that fact and make those movements come out well. </span></span><br />
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0"><br /></span></span>
<span data-offset-key="pcn4-0-0" data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0"><span data-reactid=".9.1:6.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.$editor0.0.0.$pcn4.0:$pcn4-0-0.0">See my column about Stefan Schmidt, my closes cousin and his life saving work rescuing drowning refugees in the Mediterranean. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span dir="ltr"><span style="color: grey; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.thegazette.com/subject/opinion/guest-columnists/first-bring-migrants-to-a-safe-port-20150920" id="LPlnk599039" target="_blank">http://www.thegazette.com/subject/opinion/guest-columnists/first-bring-migrants-to-a-safe-port-20150920</a></span></span></span><br />
<span dir="ltr"><span style="color: grey; font-family: Tahoma,Geneva,sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 10pt;"> </span></span></span>
Professor Steffen Schmidthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12339336142062281033noreply@blogger.com1