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Monday, April 20, 2015

Huckabee in 2016?

Have you reserved a place yet to join me on Sept 1? 

Did you Know?

"Evangelical Christians make up 49 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners, according to a Pew Research polarization data set from 2014 consisting of 10,000 interviews. White evangelicals represent 40 percent of Republican leaners. They represent as much as 80 percent of the primary vote in the Deep South and, more significantly, around 60 percent of Iowa caucus-goers." NY Times *
What's the significance of these numbers for the 2016 election? 

As the brilliant Nate Cohen suggests in his column in the Times it means we should be scrutinizing GOP presidential candidates for their appeal to Christian Evangelical and cultural conservative voters. 

That candidate, if he enters the race, is Gov. Mike Huckabee. As an evangelical minister and winner
of the Iowa caucuses and five states in 2008, Huckabee still is probably the leading candidate for Evangelicals. 

(Photo from Huckabee Facebook page)

Cohen notes, "... the religious right remains [in 2015-16] the single largest voting bloc in the Republican Party." That means Huckabee can shine in Iowa, South Carolina and several other states sucking evangelical voters away and depriving other Republican contenders such as Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, and Scott Walker of these crucial voters.

Can Huckabee win the primaries in the big GOP primary states such as Florida, Illinois, and California and get the nomination? Probably not. So it's likely that he will change the dynamics and open space for candidates such as Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, or Ohio Gov. Kasich who is waiting for God to tell him what he should do with his life.

If he were nominated could Huckabee win the general election in November? Evangelicals and social conservatives say yes and blame GOP losses on the nomination of RINO's such as John McCain and Mitt Romney. However, polls indicate that Huckabee would be too convervative for a general election.

My suggestion is for us to keep a close eye on Huckabee, see if he enters the race - he already has a very interesting web site where is asking for donations. http://www.mikehuckabee.com/.

Then, when he thrown his hat into the contest, let's track the approval polls. Remember that with a field that now could be as big as 19 GOP contenders and Hillary Clinton as the Democratic candidate the 2016 caucuses will be the most exciting since 1972!

*http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/21/upshot/mike-huckabee-would-be-a-more-important-candidate-than-you-might-think.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&abt=0002&abg=0

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