The campaign season has started ... again.

We just finished taping the interview with Iowa Governor Terry Branstad for the Iowa Caucuses MOOC course. He was there at the beginning of the Iowa Caucuses. I WAS THERE AT THE beginning too! We reminisced.

His official ceremonial office where we taped is fabulous as you can see. (Yes I know the picture is running off the edge but you need to see it this size!)

The interview was really wonderful because the governor loves and believes in the Iowa caucuses. It showed in his enthusiasm and excitement at reminiscing. It will be prominent in the FREE Internet course I'm teaching starting September 1. YOU can sign up for it and reserve a free spot at:

https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/

This is also the weekend when the Agricultural Summit takes place in Des Moines. A large group of Republican presidential potential candidates will get on the stage and each talk for 20 minutes about agriculture.

The meeting is actually very important since Ag is a HUGE part of the American economy. Corn, ethanol, soy beans, biodiesel, wind power (which is ag because the turbines sit on farmland) are all on the agenda.

Crucial to all of this are the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), a mandate that requires a certain amount of the largely corn-based fuel to be blended into the gasoline. That was established to reduce US dependence on imported oil. It was also seen as a way to include a "cleaner" fuel - ethanol - to gasoline.

Corn growers increased their acreage. Investors, many local farmers, put their money into ethanol plants which are very expensive. The DuPont biofuels plant in Nevada, Iowa will cost $200 million, and produce 30 million gallons of cellulosic biofuels. Expected to be completed in mid-2014, the new facility produce cellulosic ethanol from corn stover (what's left over after harvesting and combining corn.".

I also saw a report that "renewable fuels support 852,000 Jobs and $46 billion in wages for America’s workers."

If the federal RFS mandate is reduced or eliminated  the demand for biofuels (ethanol) and for corn will sharply decline. Already corn prices are half of what they were a year ago and companies such as John Deere which builds agricultural machinery, has already begun major layoffs.

SO, the Republican contenders for the White House (no Democrats have accepted the invitation to the summit) will be scrutinized for their knowledge about and position on various agricultural policies.

The Agriculture Summit is being sponsored by Republican Party patron Bruce Rastetter who is a major force in farming and in renewable fuels.

On my way out of the State House in Des Moines I took a picture of the rotunda (below). If you have never been you MUST go to the State Capitol and marvel over its splendor. The best museums in the world have nothing over this architectural marvel. 

 

"Branding" the 2016 candidates as new and improved?

 First: Breaking news. You can now actually enroll and save a spot in my free Internet class on the Iowa caucuses. The first session starts September 1, 2015. Please go here:

https://www.canvas.net/browse/iowa-state/courses/iowa-caucuses

Iowa View

Steffen Schmidt 11:09 p.m. CST February 23, 2015 Des Moines Register

Consumers like to know their product.

If it’s Coke, they want Coke not “New Coke.”

The latest news is that former Sen. Hillary Clinton has hired a public relations firm to help her define herself. That seems to be the main reason she hasn’t declared her 2016 candidacy for president — she’s still trying to figure out who she is.

Some are shocked at this. Actually, it’s not such an odd thing in politics.

Think of the candidates running for president in 2016 as a product. After all, they are offering their signature qualities and asking consumers of political leadership and ideology to buy their product and not the “other” products available on the market. I’m assuming there will be at least two or three alternatives to Hillary Clinton on the Democratic Party side. We know Republicans will have a bonanza of alternatives.

Selling the product requires each candidate to first of all “brand” herself or himself. The marketing field explains that, “Your brand is your promise to your customer. It tells them what they can expect from your products and services, and it differentiates your offering from that of your competitors. Your brand is derived from who you are, who you want to be and whom people perceive you to be.” This is precisely what political candidates must do. Especially the part about “whom you want people to perceive you to be.”

Second, candidates then need to develop “brand loyalty.” That means assuring that people will come back to the same candidate, i.e. the same brand.

Companies and candidates who successfully cultivate loyal customers also develop brand ambassadors. These are consumers who will buy into a certain brand and then talk positively about it among their friends. “This is free word-of-mouth marketing for the company and is often very effective,” according to Entrepreneur.com. This is clearly also the optimal outcome for political candidates. We call it “going viral,” which can be either digital or simply analog by word of mouth.

According to Bloomberg BusinessWeek, MIT Sloan School marketing professor Renée Richardson Gosline has noted that to inspire loyalty you need to offer a unique feeling not just a vague idea. A product, i.e. a candidate, must fit a specific brand identity and send a signal of what that brand is and “… carry the same brand identity signal across the entire product.” The brand label must not “dilute its identity.” That means candidates need to drill down on their identity, reinforce it, refine it but not swerve too far away from the brand the consumers know.

My best example of this is former Vice President Al Gore. When he ran for president in 2000, one of the observation by the media, pundits and even many voters was that he “does a perfect imitation of a tree.” In other words he was stiff and conventional.

I followed that race for the White House very closely and it soon became evident that someone was messing with Al Gore, trying to transform him. The first thing we noticed was that he suddenly started wearing a Palm Pilot on his belt.

Palm Pilot was a digital organizer launched in 1992 with which you could manage your calendar and other information. Remember that Gore was said to have “invented the Internet,” which he didn’t actually do. As a matter of fact, I remember stories reporting that President Bill Clinton and Gore had to be taught how to use a computer. So, Gore’s handlers decided to make him “cool” and “techie” by slapping a Palm on his waist.

Then, a few months later at a big rally in the Memorial Union at Iowa State University, I had a front-row seat. Gore emerged on stage and I immediately noticed that he was wearing “Earth tones.” That must have been part of his evolution to an environmentalist which, of course, culminated in the publishing of his book, “An Inconvenient Truth,” and the Nobel Prize shared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

But, I also noticed that he was wearing super-tight pants, which startlingly accentuated his buttocks. That was unfamiliar and out of character.

When these changes became clear to the media, and even to voters, the reaction was that people liked the “old Gore” much better even if he was boring like a tree.

In other words, they liked the existing brand, the “Old Coke” better than the “rebranded” Gore, i.e. the “New Coke.”

I’ll be watching the 2016 contenders closely to see how they brand themselves. Especially Hillary Clinton.

The Democratic race for the White House started last night!

We know that the Republican race for the White House started on January 24, 2015 with the Freedom Summit organized by Congressman Steve King and Citizens United.

The Democratic race for a win in the Iowa Presidential Caucuses started last night, February 21, 2015 in Ames, Iowa.

That was the night that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders packed the house at the Story County Democrats Soup Supper. I've been to many Republican and Democratic Party events in my 45 year's at Iowa State University. I have never seen a more energized crowd.

While there was a "Ready for Hillary" table, it was clear that many of the attendees were really "Ready for Anyone But Hillary."

Sanders never mentioned Clinton but he railed against social inequality, the threat of the Koch Brothers billion dollar political offensive, the income gap that has driven down real middle class salaries, and Wall Street.

His message was a well disguised ambush of Clinton's "stealth campaign" for the Iowa Presidential caucuses season.

Democrats have been chafing at the bit for their White House race to start, anxious that the Republicans have dominated the agenda.

As I talked with many Democratic leaders at the soup dinner it became clear that there is deep anxiety among Democrats and also independent caucus attendees (they were very prominent at the event) about the potential Democratic field for 2016. The question is still asked "Steffen, do you think in the end Hillary will run?"

The other question, of course, is "Steffen, who else besides Hillary do you think will run?"

I personally believe at this moment that several Democrats will compete for the three top places in the Iowa caucuses: Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, and Martin O'Malley will compete in Iowa. I don't think that Elizabeth Warren will throw her hat in the ring.

There was relief at the possibility of a vigorous competition in the Democratic Party contest.  A coronation of Clinton is universally seen as a very bad idea.

Sanders is a passionate and focused speaker. His message is no doubt the most liberal of any 2016 contender. Many Democrats feel that this is just what the party needs to juxtapose itself against the Republican conservative message. I heard more than once that 2016 may be the year for populism and not for more "Clinton New Democrat" triangulation.

I think if Sanders organizes his campaign professionally and gets good advice from experienced Iowans not some out of town, slick, professional campaign managers, he can give Hillary a run for the money and she will have a bushel basket full of money.

More in my next blog on out of state "professional" campaign managers.

(all photographs 2015, (c) Schmidt, SEAS LLC)

Iowa Caucuses MOOC progressing nicely

I'm delighted to tell you that The MOOC on the Iowa Presidential caucuses is developing just as we hoped.

Our delivery platform will be Canvas. It is a terrific delivery system that is clean and has great usability. We will share some more information once wee mount our MOOC page. (Of course, the caucuses class will not actually open up until September and then it will be repeated several times for your convenience and pleasure!)

We are on schedule with or HD production company shooting interviews with a wide variety of interesting people who are providing excellent insights into the Iowa caucuses.

One of our experts is Raluca Cozma of the Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication at Iowa State University. (Shown with Prof Schmidt in this picture)

She is an expert in the field of political communication and offers some very exciting insights into the process of Presidential candidate selection.

Her easily understandable but startling research findings will be of special significance for people in the communications media enrolled in the class.

Our excellent professional video team has been hard at work. we are using three HD cameras and two professional videographers and the full compliment of lighting and other equipment. The video interviews will be first class in content but also production value. The team is with B & G Productions http://www.bgvideoproductions.com/ (See picture Below)

We also conducted several other interviews which we will be sharing with you soon.

The project has also started rolling out an elaborate and very professional marketing initiative. This is designed to reach a large audience of people who would be interested in this Iowa Presidential caucuses class.

We have already heard from journalists, from professionals in the political consulting field, activist citizens from both major parties, and college students.

Many of the college students are excited about earning a certificate at the end of the MOOC and being able to include this innovative class on their résumé.

 One of the surprises in designing and now developing this MOOC is the attention to detail that is necessary to "get it 100% right." In the next picture Steffen Schmidt is getting some "remodeling" of the face and University of Northern Iowa Professor Chris Larimer, who was interviewed in this shoot at the Political Science department at UNI, is next in line for some video makeup.

We are VERY excited to share with you that Governor Terry Branstad has agreed to an interview and we will be picking his brain for the substantial insights of the longest serving governor (six terms) and a "two century" governor (he is serving now and served in the last century.)

Stay tuned for more to come.

In the meantime reserve your place for the FREE online class which will launch in September by going to our web site at:

https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/

The Iowa Straw Poll Rocks!

Iowa Caucuses and Straw Poll as relevant as ever
by Steffen Schmidt
CityView, Des Moines, 2/18/2015

Every four years, the contrarians come out of the woodwork trashing the Iowa Presidential Caucuses and the Ames Straw Poll.

Retired Drake journalism school professor Herb Strentz had his opportunity at this Whack-a-Mole in Cityview. In “Adieu to the relevance” of the caucuses and poll, he avers that Congressman Steve King’s Freedom Summit is proof of the irrelevance of Iowa. He quotes the left-wing wag Scott Galindez, featured in Anarchist publications such as The Rag Blog, who wrote that Iowans are “God-fearing, pig-castrating, gun toting whackos.”

First of all, Professor Strentz may have missed the fact that there is no such a thing as “Iowans.” There are Independent-No-Party voters, there are lots of Democrats (Iowa is probably still purple), there are seriously lefty Bernie Sanders Democrats, there are Libertarian-Rand Paul Republican Iowans, and there are even lots of moderate Republicans or Mitt Romney would not have tied for first place in the last Iowa caucuses. Iowa is much more diverse than the fool out of town critics can ever imagine.

By the way, in Iowa we have members of the Evangelical Lutheran Church, Lutheran Church–Missouri Synod, Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod, and, for all I know, other diverse branches of the Lutheran faith. Now that’s diversity!

Second, the Iowa caucuses are a terrific testing ground for candidates. They can hone their skills, meet lots of self-confident people at cafés, community centers, the Iowa State Fair, and people’s homes, people who will straight out ask hard questions with no intermediaries. And poor candidates like Rick Santorum can beat a rich businessman like Mitt Romney by burning up shoe leather and going to 99 counties shaking hands and selling himself.

Third, Strentz misses the point completely that Iowa allows us and the massive media horde that come here to assess the character and communications style and skills of contenders. Anyone watching Steve King’s Summit from “gavel-to-gavel” could not help but see the differences between Gov. Scott Walker and Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina and Sara Palin.

Fourth, the Ames Straw Poll is a terrific, fun political festival. The media loves it. Those attending the event (including me) love it. The Iowa Republican Party loves it since it raises a ton of money. Ames and Story County love it because these fool politicians leave a big chunk of money with us. It’s called a Republican stimulus package for us.

Fifth, Joni Ernst WON the Senate race. No matter how much the left dislikes her, the Democrats blew that race and almost every other race in 2014. That’s how elections work, Professor. The majority works hard, turns out large numbers and wins elections. I recommend that the Democrats carefully study Joni’s campaign. They will learn how to win elections.

And, of course, the East Coast dandies who write about the Iowa caucuses have their own axe to grind, and their own “groupies” to satisfy.

I, for one, am a huge fan of the Iowa Caucuses and the Straw Poll. They create political excitement. They show what highly motivated voters are as opposed to the low information and low intensity voters who turn out for primaries.

Let the candidates roll in!

Join me this September for a fun, online, FREE class on the Iowa Caucuses (and Straw Poll)!

Reserve your place here:
https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/


Steffen Schmidt is originator and co-author of the largest selling American government college textbook and Professor of Political Science at Iowa State University. His Iowa Caucuses online course launches in September.

Scott Walker Disappoints.

When Gov Scott Walker left Iowa after Congressman Steve King's Freedom Summit he looked like a winner.

Then he went to London.

Wassup with the "London Pilgrimage?'

Chris Christie went and got mostly bad press when he punked on measles vaccination saying it was up to parents, then waffling again and saying kids should be vaccinated. Then he "Went Christie" which is the expression we use when he loses it in front of media. When a reporter tried a follow up question he told the journalist to basically shut up and stop asking questions.

Now Scott Walker goes to London for a "trade mission."  The headlines from that ill fated journey were "Gov. Scott Walker 'Punts' on Foreign Policy, Evolution Questions in London." At the policy institute Chatham House,he repeatedly refused to answer foreign policy questions.

He was asked about Ukraine and ISIS and his answer basically was "I just don’t think you talk about foreign policy when you’re on foreign soil.”

When asked about evolution he basically sided with creationists "Both science & my faith dictate my belief that we are created by God."

It's still early and both Christie and Scott said the right thing for conservative Republican base voters. So maybe their "stumble" will have no consequences going forward. However, every little bump in the road can turn off independent ("No-Party") voters such as the New Hampsherites who can vote in the "open primary" election there.

Some years ago Mitt Romney also did a London pilgrimage and insulted London by saying he was not sure if they could handle the Olympics because of security issues. London Mayor Boris Johnson raked Romney across the coals. It was another bad London "karma" moment. 

We are still investigating why these politicians think they need to go to London. We now refer to it as the "London Curse."

I would suggest changing cities. Dublin or Berlin would be nice.

Schmidt on Scott Walker

Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University and expert on the Iowa caucuses, said tying Wisconsin with the phrase "free and prosperous" could be an "amazing" campaign slogan for a national race.

Schmidt said Walker's emphasis on lean government, school reform and rejection of Common Core academic standards check some "must-do" boxes for any Republicans hoping to form a favorable impression with conservatives around the country."

"Schmidt agreed that Walker's salute to the military — proclaiming that "red, white and blue runs even deeper" than green and gold, the Packers' colors — and his condemnation of the terror attacks sounded presidential.
"He is well positioned now for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina if he decides to fully throw his hat in the ring for 2016," Schmidt said.

"Gov. Walker is on my list of the five strongest contenders for 2016," said Steffen Schmidt, a longtime professor of political science at Iowa State University and expert on the Iowa caucuses."

The Iowa caucuses are tentatively scheduled for Feb. 1, 2016. More than one year out, Schmidt predicts Walker will shine in the Hawkeye State.
Walker has made a few visits to Iowa over the last several years, giving speeches at Republican fundraisers and other events. He lived in the northeastern part of the state for seven years as a child. And there's already an IowansForWalker.com website up and running.
"He should do well in the Iowa caucuses, coming in first, second or third, which is where candidates need to place to have a chance getting the nomination," Schmidt said.
 (Picture from ScottWalker.com)

Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/writers/jessie-opoien/iowa-politics-expert-predicts-top-three-finish-for-scott-walker/article_44d79581-bf2e-565b-b080-ec2af23777d5.html#ixzz3RMjOj6Lr

Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/writers/jessie-opoien/iowa-politics-expert-predicts-top-three-finish-for-scott-walker/article_44d79581-bf2e-565b-b080-ec2af23777d5.html#ixzz3RMjDsqq7

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Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/was-scott-walker-s-state-of-the-state-a-presidential/article_a4173bb8-9b97-11e4-9a8b-8b2f6b0e0dd2.html#ixzz3RMiyAVKF

Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/was-scott-walker-s-state-of-the-state-a-presidential/article_a4173bb8-9b97-11e4-9a8b-8b2f6b0e0dd2.html#ixzz3RMiRsdyo

Iowa Political Caucuses: Reporters, Politicians, and Lies

Iowa Political Caucuses: Reporters, Politicians, and Lies: --> Reporter Brian Williams is temporarily stepping away from the "NBC Nightly News” because he somehow “misremembered” a...

Reporters, Politicians, and Lies

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Reporter Brian Williams is temporarily stepping away from the "NBC Nightly News” because he somehow “misremembered” an incident in a helicopter that came under fire while he was on assignment in Iraq in 2003. The evidence now shows that was not the case. Williams apologized.

Williams also he said bodies were floating past his hotel in New Orleans during Katrina in 2006 but there was very little flooding in the French Quarter where he was staying.

Then, “NBC News anchor Brian Williams told differing stories about a 1994 interview he conducted with Nelson Mandela just after his election to the presidency of South Africa. During an event at The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation on Feb. 8, 2008, an audience member asked Williams to name the highlights of his career. “I was the first person to walk into the hotel room of Nelson Mandela the morning he woke up and learned he’d been elected president,” said Williams.” 

Apparently there were lots of discrepancies and “illusions” in this claim. 

Hillary Clinton also lied. 

Do you remember the story about Hillary Clinton? 

“On March 25, 2008, Hillary Clinton said that she and her daughter, Chelsea, were shot at in Bosnia in 1996. After the claims were disputed, Clinton said she has a “different memory” of the events that occurred.” 

You thought Benghazi was going to be a problem! This is going to be a BIG problem for Clinton.

And people say the Iowa Caucuses, First in the Nation, thin out the field of Presidential contenders!

Not so. Presidential wannabes weed themselves out by lying, making up stuff, and having “oops!’ moments.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie had at least one “oops” moment.

This week on a trip to England to boost his foreign policy credentials he was felled by the measles. When asked about the US measles outbreak and vaccinations the “Big Guy” (that’s not my term I saw it in numerous media reports) decided to waffle and say that there should be parental choice. When reporters pressed him he told them to basically shut up and he was not taking any more questions.

Then the New York Times ran a damning article about Christie and his adventures flying in private airplanes to venues, being feted by the King of Jordan, champagne in the desert and staying at an incredibly expensive hotel or as they said “The rooms in luxurious Kempinski hotels had cost about $30,000.”

Add all of this and then there was Rand Paul’s statement that vaccines should be a family choice and you can see why I am SO excited about the 2016 Iowa Caucuses!

I want to personally invite you as an InsiderIowa.com friend to join my free Iowa Presidential Caucuses Internet class starting in September. Reserve a space. No obligation, at http://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/

Chris Christie's worst week as Presidential contender.

When you run for President or are thinking about running everything becomes an issue.

* In the News: Gov. Chris Christie's (R) trips on a plane owned by Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones.

* More stories about many lavish trips on multiple private planes paid for by others.

* "a "trade mission" to Israel in 2012 on a private plane paid for by billionaire casino owner Sheldon Adelson on which Christie reportedly had his "own bedroom." (PS. "At the time, Adelson was lobbying [the state of New Jersey] on gambling legislation."
* He went on a trip to Jordan "... that was paid for by that country's monarch, King Abdullah. It included two parties at the king's home, a "champagne reception" in the desert, and rooms "in luxurious Kempinski hotels had cost about $30,000."

Then there was a measles outbreak in the United States. Christie was in London, on a trade mission. He was asked about vaccinations.

Bloomberg View reported that "He said his four kids were vaccinated, but that "that parents need to have some measure of choice in things as well. So that’s the balance that the government has to decide." That laissez-faire approach plays well with the keep your hands off my guns, my textbooks and my kids constituency he may need for the Iowa caucuses, as well as some New Age liberals he'll never get, but not necessarily with the 99 percent of us who thought the disease had been eradicated in the U.S. Christie’s office was soon out with a correction, saying there was “no question kids should be vaccinated.”"

I asked some of my friends if Iowa Republicans really do not believe in mandated vaccination and discovered that most think that's just bull.

When reporters tried to ask Christie some more questions he snarked back at them "... what part of no questions don’t you understand?!”

So now all of a sudden vaccinations have become a huge political issue. The GOP contenders are dividing up with Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush in favor of vaccination, Rand Paul coming out for parental rights and no government mandate, and some others running away fast from the issue and hiding. Of course, Michelle Bachman believes that vaccinations cause mental retardation but she's not running for President in 2016.

The 2016 caucuses are already providing the ammunition for weeding out potential contenders.

More at: http://www.businessinsider.com/chris-christies-luxury-travel-and-private-flights-2015-2

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-06/christie-and-paul-come-down-with-measles

Republican Presidential Wannabes MUST do well in Blue states

Reprinted from the Ames, Iowa Tribune

The Iowa caucuses on February 1 will launch one to three Republican contenders into the limelight. Iowa is an interesting state because in fact caucus voters I both parties can divide along several preferences.

Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum won the Republican caucuses in 2012 representing the faith based conservatives and the country club establishment. Keep that in mind as you assess the 2016 contenders.

Let’s make it clear. Iowa is VERY important because it’s first and has a great record of pointing to the potential nominee. BUT, how does a candidate actually get nominated?

They normally need to collect delegates in many states before reaching the magic number to get the nomination at the Democratic National Convention. How does that work?

Numbers cruncher Nate Cohn has looked at where the delegates are harvested and found that a Republican contender actually MUST do very well in blue (Democrat) states. In his latest column he writes in the New York Times that

“The blue-state Republicans make it far harder for a very conservative candidate to win the party’s nomination than the party’s reputation suggests. They also give a candidate who might seem somewhat out of touch with today’s Republican Party, like Jeb Bush, a larger base of potential support than is commonly thought.”

His data is compelling and surprising.

“…  blue-state Republicans still possess the delegates, voters and resources to decide the nomination. In 2012, there were more Romney voters in California than in Texas, and in Chicago’s Cook County than in West Virginia. Mr. Romney won three times as many voters in overwhelmingly Democratic New York City than in Republican-leaning Alaska.”

As we assess the huge field of presumed GOP candidates it is important to consider these metrics. Perhaps the most surprising piece of information coming from Cohn is the fact that “… 59 percent of Romney voters in the Republican primaries lived in the states carried by President Obama.”

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Iowa’s most conservative Republicans will fold and go for a moderate again in 2016. Remember that the mantra of the GOP is that the party lost two important elections by nominating John McCain and Mitt Romney who were deemed to be too moderate. The strategy for the next presidential contest seems to be to nominate a “true” conservative not a RINO, a Republican in Name Only. Such a candidate it is assumed, would excite the dormant “silent majority” of Americans who don’t bother to vote and who are considered to be more conservative than what the Republicans as well as Democrats have offered up for the White House. We saw that great enthusiasm for conservatives and the disdain for moderates such as Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush at Congressman King’s Freedom Forum in Des Moines. 

However the very bluest of blue states – think states like Vermont, California, Massachusetts – actually account for 4 in 10 voters in Republican primaries. In 2008 and 2012 John McCain and Mitt Romney won every single blue-state primary according to Nate Cohn. That is a substantial mountain to overcome by what I call the “hard conservatives.” 

In 2016 the Republican candidate who can earn the support of the hard-core conservative caucus voters but also win the vote of blue-state Republicans will win the nomination, and, many analyses suggest also has an excellent chance of winning the general election.

Iowa Political Caucuses: The Caucuses MOOC class is building!

Iowa Political Caucuses: The Caucuses MOOC class is building!: In September we will launch the Iowa caucuses Massive Open Online Class (MOOC) free and 100% on the Internet. Today we did a FABULOUS inte...

The Caucuses MOOC class is building!

In September we will launch the Iowa caucuses Massive Open Online Class (MOOC) free and 100% on the Internet.

Today we did a FABULOUS interview with my colleague David Andersen.See picture below in the Political Science department research library. We talked extensively about the role of media in the Presidential selection process. Prof Andersen argues that the old and new (social) media play a huge and important role in the ability of candidates to sell themselves to Iowa caucus voters. How doe the new media (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, Pinterest, Linkedin, Mashable, Tumblr, StumbleUpon, Digg, Blogger, Reddit, Foursquare, Instagram, WhatsApp, Skype, and many others.
 

Andersen and Schmidt

Andersen also made an important analysis of the differences between the Iowa Caucuses and caucuses in other states which reveals new insights into the clash between and among candidates as they cruise across the United States trying to harvest delegates.

He also provides very insightful perspectives on the positive functions of the Iowa caucuses when compared to the role of primaries.

There is much more in this interview and we will share that with you in the MOOC.

Stay tuned for more exciting announcements from the Iowa Presidential Caucuses MOOC Central Headquarters in Ross Hall at Iowa State University.
http://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/   Sign in here for updates and reserve your place in the MOOC.

Iowa Political Caucuses: Los Caucus Presidenciales en el estado de Iowa

Iowa Political Caucuses: Los Caucus Presidenciales en el estado de Iowa: Los Caucus Presidenciales (Asambles Partidistas) en el estado de Iowa Profesor Steffen Schmidt Universidad Estatal de Iowa (Adap...

Los Caucus Presidenciales en el estado de Iowa

Los Caucus Presidenciales (Asambles Partidistas) en el estado de Iowa
Profesor Steffen Schmidt
Universidad Estatal de Iowa
(Adaptado de varios artículos y “blogs.”)[i]

En 2015 empieza el largo proceso de las elecciones presidenciales en Estados Unidos. Los candidatos a la presidencia de ambos partidos declaran su intención de competir, comienzan a solicitar fondos para la costosísima contienda (se espera que el costo será de un billón de dólares), y contratan con administradores de campana para lanzar su esfuerzo.  
Militantes del partido Republicano de Iowa escogen en la noche de los “caucus” en enero de 2016 quién es su candidato para enfrentarse al candidato del partido Demócrata en noviembre de 2016. A la misma vez los Demócratas en Iowa escogerán su candidato o candidata.
El sistema en Iowa es especial: no son unas elecciones tradicionales con colegios electorales (puestos de votación) abiertos todo el día. Son “caucus”. Los votantes se reunirán a las 7 de la tarde (noche) en 1.774 precintos electorales, escucharán un discurso de representantes de los candidatos y escribirán en un papel a quién escogen. El Partido cuenta los resultados y los publica.
En el Partido Republicano lo común es que el voto sea secreto. En el Partido Demócrata los votantes de los caucus se agrupan en esquinas del lugar donde se reúne cada “caucus” y los indecisos en el centro. Cada grupo intenta convencer a los indecisos unirse al grupo de su candidato. 
Además, los grupos de “preferencia” para candidatos tienen que superar una cuota de personas en cada precinto (es decir cada “caucus”) calculada como un porcentaje de los participantes en ese recinto. Los grupos de no llegan a esa cifra se declaran “no viables” y las personas que apoyan a ese(a) candidato(a) tienen que unirse a un grupo viable o declararse indecisos.
Iowa escoge solo a 28 delegados de los 2.286 de todo el país que se reunirán en una convención nacional de cada partido en el verano para escoger a su candidato. El ganador debe reunir más de la mitad de los delegados, primaria tras primaria obtenidos después de un “maratón” político en todo el país.
La mayoría de primarias en Estados Unidos son elecciones tradicionales, pero hay alrededor de 15 estados que optan por los caucus. Cada estado decide a quién deja votar en sus primarias. En un gran numero de primarias podrán votar ciudadanos no identificados como republicanos o demócratas
Por qué Iowa es importante
En 2008 se reunieron en los caucus de Iowa 119 mil votantes. Es un porcentaje pequeño de los 3 millones de habitantes de Iowa, “.. la mayoría blancos y religiosos. Su influencia en la política americana es desmesurada por un motivo simple: son los primeros en votar,” escribe Jordi Pérez Colomé.  Sin embargo el primer candidato Negro, Afro-Americano, y multirracial, Barak Obama, gano los caucus de Iowa lo que le impulso a ganar la mayoría de delegados demócratas y luego la presidencia.
Se especula si el proceso de escoger candidato empezaría en otro estado los resultados serian diferentes. Yo, como analista de las elecciones considero que no cambiaria los resultados de quien se presentara como candidato ni quien ganaría la mayoría de los delegados.
Además, Iowa ofrece a candidatos desconocidos la oportunidad de presentarse a los votantes del país. Por ejemplo “ … en 1976 los republicanos también adelantaron sus preliminares a enero. Ese fue el año en el que el anteriormente desconocido Jimmy Carter, saltó a primer lugar y luego ganó la presidencia. Y esa es una de las razones por las que los candidatos invierten mucho tiempo y recursos en Iowa.”[ii]
La ventaja de ser pocos interesados es que tienen la oportunidad de ver de cerca y preguntar a los candidatos en pequeñas reuniones. Hace meses que los políticos visitan distintos lugares de Iowa. También en Iowa son los primeros en ver los anuncios y líneas generales de cada campaña. En ese sentido Iowa es un laboratorio nacional.
Por qué Iowa es muy importante
Felipe Benítez  en su excelente blog establece que “… la importancia de los caucus de Iowa radica más en términos de simbólicos que términos reales electorales.”  “… en términos mediáticos y de percepciones, aquel aspirante que gana Iowa es considerado como el líder en la contienda, lo que hace que se sumen simpatizantes y se abran las chequeras de donantes, por el contrario una derrota o un mal desempeño en Iowa puede acabar con las aspiraciones presidenciales de un candidato. [iii]
Los caucus no son totalmente decisivos. En 2008 acertaron con Obama, pero escogieron a los republicanos Mike Huckabee y Mitt Romney en lugar de John McCain, que al final fue el nominado. Sin embargo cuatro año después Mitt Romney gano en Iowa y fue elegido como el candidato republicano subrayando la importancia de Iowa como “El barómetro político” de contiendas presidenciales.
Los caucus de Iowa pueden catapultar o hundir una campaña: es mucho, pero no es todo. Para los candidatos, es casi más importante cumplir o superar las expectativas de los sondeos que quedar primero. Pero la verdad es que en la historia política de los EEUU desde 1972 los caucus de Iowa han sido un proceso sorprendentemente confiable en predecir cuales tres candidatos a la presidencia ganaran el premio de ser elegidos en la convención de su partido. ningún candidato que haya quedado por debajo del tercer lugar ha conseguido la codiciada nominación.
Después de Iowa viene el estado de New Hampshire, un estado con elecciones tradicionales, más moderado y con más participación. Los resultados suelen variar. Por ejemplo en 2008 Barak Obama gano los caucus en Iowa pero Hillary Clinton la ex senadora de Nueva York y esposa del Presidente Bill Clinton gano en New Hampshire.
Entre estos dos estados el futuro de candidatos crece o termina porque el “momentum”  o impulso de cada candidato se mide con los resultados de estos dos estados. Además la enorme cantidad de fondos que necesita un candidato a la presidencia disminuye con perdidas en Iowa y New Hampshire. Se dice que el pozo de dinero se seca!

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[i] http://www.obamaworld.es/2012/01/03/las-primarias-empiezan-en-iowa-y-por-que-solo-importa-mitt-romney/

Partes de este articulo son adaptado del “blog” de Jordi Pérez Colomé (Barcelona, 1976) periodista. Ha escrito seis libros (ver abajo "Mis libros"). Es director de El Ciervo. Ha ganado los premios José Manuel Porquet de periodismo digital 2012 y Letras Enredadas 2014 de iRedes. Este blog se ocupa de Barack Obama, de Estados Unidos y de su influencia en el mundo.

[ii] http://politica.about.com/od/Partidos/a/Caucus-Republicano-De-Iowa.htm

[iii] https://elecciones2012usa.wordpress.com/2011/12/29/que-son-los-caucuses-de-iowa-y-por-que-son-de-importancia/

Iowa Political Caucuses: Steve King's Excellent Adventure

Iowa Political Caucuses: Steve King's Excellent Adventure: Iowa conservative Congressman Steve King was the beaming moderator of his presidential candidate shindig the Freedom Forum held in Des Moine...

Steve King's Excellent Adventure - Part 2.

Iowa conservative Congressman Steve King was the beaming moderator of his presidential candidate shindig the Freedom Forum held in Des Moines on January 24, 2014.

It achieved several goals.

First of all, it just about terminated Sara Palins strange political adventure. She was her usual cutsie, nasty, "pokey," sarcastic self. But then suddenly she started lurching into incomprehensible babble. The crowd at the event looked puzzled. She incoherently lurched on, finished, got applause and walked off the stage.

What happened?!

We now learn that the teleprompter suddenly quit on her. Who knew that her pronouncements were actually scripted? Who knew that she can't just pick up and extemporaneously go on?

Now the rumor in Iowa is that someone (the search is on) deliberately stopped or jammed the teleprompter to terminate her career.

Paranoia?

Maybe.

But in fact Palin is a big distraction to the 2016 march to the White House. She's just not serious and in a dangerous world even conservative Republicans have said she's unacceptable as President.The crowd at King's event was appalled and they are about as forgiving an audience as Palin will ever get.

Second, Steve King has chosen his "winners" from the event: Texas Senator Ted Cruz (see picture) and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.

Iowa governor Terry Branstad is apparently furious. He wants to keep the Iowa caucuses unbiased and wide open so that all contenders will come to the caucuses in February 2016. Maybe he was so upset that he fainted and required hospitalization a few days after the King Summit.

If you are Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Piyush "Bobby" Jindal, or Mitt Romney would YOU now feel that Iowa is unbiased?

Governor Branstad, please get well quickly and fix the problem. Iowa should be open to all contenders at this point in the race to the White House.

Iowa Political Caucuses: Steve King's Excellent Presidential Caucus Forum

Iowa Political Caucuses: Steve King's Excellent Presidential Caucus Forum: Steve King’s Presidential Forum Steffen Schmidt The Republican Presidential contenders attending Congressman Ste...

Steve King's Excellent Presidential Caucus Forum

Steve King’s Presidential Forum

Steffen Schmidt

The Republican Presidential contenders attending Congressman Steve King’s “Freedom Summit” Presidential forum in Des Moines on January 24, 2015 need to be very careful. If they pander too much to Steve King, who is a nationally very controversial politician, they risk being politically destroyed by what I call the "Bachmann Factor." Michelle Bachmann, former MN Representative, is a close friend of King's. She won the 2011 Ames Straw Poll in the last election but her positions, very similar to King's, were so divisive that she subsequently tanked in the Iowa caucuses.

Stepping back to a previous caucus season, former Governor Mike Huckabee won the 2008 Iowa caucuses but then went on to tank also because he was too socially conservative and did not have a robust wide platform including a strong experience in foreign policy. I believe that 2016 Republican contestants have to avoid getting “Hucked.”

Potential GOP candidates also have to be worried about getting "Santorumed." Named after former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum that’s the process whereby a candidate appeals to Iowa's most faith-based, evangelical, and socially conservative voters only to be rejected by the more secular conservative and even moderate primary voters in much of the rest of the nation. That’s what happened when Mitt Romney beat Santorum in 2012 for the GOP nomination.

In other words, the 2016-wannabe candidates have to be careful beyond Iowa not to alienate the majority of Republican voters who chose Mitt Romney NOT Rick Santorum as their candidate.

Then, whoever gets the nomination has to make sure he or she (Carly Fiorina is showing signs of interest in running for President) doesn't veer too far from where “no-party” (i.e. so-called "independent" voters) are located on the political spectrum.

Talking with Republican strategists I discovered that they are indeed concerned about the fact that someone as liberal as Barak Obama could win two Presidential elections. Of course, conservative Republicans argue that the success of the democrats in 2008 and 2012 can be blamed on the GOP Presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney actually being too moderate.

Other analysts of course, point out that McCain had Sarah Palin as his running mate who helped him with conservatives but drove away too many voters in November. Mitt Romney it is argued was forced to the right (he was a moderate as governor of Massachusetts) and was at the same time seen as an elitist who did not connect well with working class voters.

Iowa Political Caucuses: The 2015 Presidential debates have begun

Iowa Political Caucuses: The 2015 Presidential debates have begun: I read an interesting news story. "GOP moves to limit 2016 presidential debates after complaints of media bias, high number in 2012 s...

The 2015 Presidential debates have begun

I read an interesting news story.

"GOP moves to limit 2016 presidential debates after complaints of media bias, high number in 2012 season"The article said "Washington Republicans have moved to exert more control over their presidential primary debates, limiting the types and number of events in which 2016 candidates can participate, in an effort to get a firmer grip on the nominating process."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/05/11/gop-moves-to-limited-2016-presidential-debates/

All I have to say to the RNC is GOOD LUCK!

On Saturday Steve King, Iowa's 4th District Congressman is running the The Iowa Freedom Summit which Realclearpolitics says "... will be the first major cattle call of the 2016 Republican campaign."

May I say with all due respect, that this is actually the first GOP debate.It's not an "official" debate but this is 2015 and the idea that anyone can control political communication is out of touch. We can have Internet debates, we can have live blogging debates, we will have "forums" and other candidate shindigs all over the United States which will get AS MUCH COVERAGE as the formal debates.

So, 2015 will be a year of abundant and mind boggling candidate presentations and confrontations ON TOP OF the formal and "official" debates.

Iowa Political Caucuses: The Ames Straw Poll

Iowa Political Caucuses: The Ames Straw Poll: Since 1979 every summer before the Iowa caucuses the Republican Party of Iowa organized a Straw Poll - the Ames GOP Straw Poll - where presi...

The Ames Straw Poll

Since 1979 every summer before the Iowa caucuses the Republican Party of Iowa organized a Straw Poll - the Ames GOP Straw Poll- where presidential contenders could show their stuff, haul in "supporters" and try to get buzz by "winning" the straw poll.

The poll is not a great predictor of who will win the Iowa Caucuses nor who will win the GOP nomination NOR who will become President of the United States. Those are the criticisms of the Straw poll.

Iowa Governor Terry Branstad wants the straw poll killed because it distracts from the caucuses. I'm not sure how since we have had the straw poll since 1979 and it did nothing to undermine or "weaken" the importance of the caucuses for OVER 30 YEARS!

I know that the governor was frightened by MN congresswoman Michelle Bachmann's victory in 2011. BUT her victory was short lived and she came in near last in the actual caucuses.

My argument is that the Ames Straw poll is NOT the Iowa caucuses and it has completely different purposes including:

1. It is a great political festival during a slow news period. The media LOVE the poll.
2. The straw poll also allows extreme candidates (Bachmann) to scare the bejeebees out of Republicans who then ramp up up port for more credible candidates such as Romney.
3. The straw poll is economic development and creates hundreds of jobs in the transportation, printing, tech, and hospitality industries. It also stimulates the airlines, Des Moines airport, and charter bus companies.

I love the straw poll and have had a lot of fun watching the candidates try to outdo each other in organizing support, hiring musicians, serving fantastic barbeque, and otherwise creating a festive and fun political event. What's wrong with that?

I'm a big fan of the Straw Poll. I have even called publicly for the Democrats to also organize a straw poll and maybe call it the Thomas Jefferson - Andrew Jackson Democratic Party Politipalooza. *

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* FYI - "Jefferson–Jackson Day is the most common name given to the annual fundraising celebration held by Democratic Party organizations in the United States."

Iowa Political Caucuses: Gov Scott Walker is Running for President

Iowa Political Caucuses: Gov Scott Walker is Running for President: It's God's work.