Here Comes Ted Cruz

The Iowa Caucuses are like honey to flies for politicians. If you have even a small Napoleon Complex and think you could be the leader of the most powerful nation on Earth then Iowa is your venue every four years for the caucuses.

You will soon be tired of seeing "Here Comes" but unfortunately you are reading a blog on the Iowa Caucuses and we are "only" three years from a Presidential election so every Republican with a pulse is coming to Iowa, and frequently!

This week Texas Senator and "Tea Party Darling" (that was what one good political reporter calls him) Ted Cruz was in the state. As usual he was the guest of the guest of the network of Christian Educators and homeschooler's.  He then went to Mason City for a fund raiser with "Tea Party darling Iowa Congressman Steve King.

Cruz is trying to cement his credentials as a social conservative and as "the" religious candidate of the GOP. His main theme was the persecution of religion and imposition of unconstitutional mandates on schools by the federal government.

Iowa is the state of corn and ethanol, alcohol made from corn and blended with gasoline by federal law. Cruz is an opponent of ethanol blending which is no surprise since he comes from Texas where oil and gas are king.

On his March visit he got push back from a group calling itself VoteVets.org. "The Voice of American's 21st Century Patriots." It featured a picture of a soldier on his stomach aiming a rifle at a distant, Afghan-looking landscape. The ad admonished Cruz for opposing " ... the renewable fuels industry which supports 62,000 jobs and provides $4 billion in income for Iowa families."

The full page ad asked "Senator Cruz, as military veterans. we have one question for you. Do you want to import more oil from dangerous parts of the world, or produce more clean, homegrown American Biofuels?

The ad ends "A new job for you [ President of the United States?] shouldn't come at the expense of 62,000 Iowa jobs."

VoteVets Mission Statement states,

"Founded in 2006,  and backed by over 360,000 supporters, the mission of VoteVets.org is to use public issue campaigns and direct outreach to lawmakers to ensure that troops abroad have what they need to complete their missions, and receive the care they deserve when they get home.  VoteVets.org also recognizes veterans as a vital part of the fabric of our country and will work to protect veterans' interests in their day-to-day lives.  VoteVets.org is committed to the destruction of terror networks around the world – with force when necessary – to protect America."

The ad also has a banner line at the bottom from "SaveTheRFS.org" with RFS being the Renewable Fuels Standard which is the mandate that requires ethanol to be blended with gasoline. There is also a .com version with a different theme (no military veterans on this page) http://www.savetherfs.com/ 

If I am Ted Cruz I'm not very happy to have bumped into this hornets nest. These are heavy hitters. When you come to Iowa campaigning it doesn't matter how much Congressman King takes you pheasant hunting (that was last time) you are staring at a formidable coalition of farmers, ethanol plant investors, clean fuel consumers, and jobs. And in Iowa you don't mess with veterans either!

Even if this whole initiative may actually be launched by liberals, which is hard to tell since it is well packaged in a very patriotic theme.

The Iowa Caucuses - Here comes Rick Perry

Rick Perry has been in Iowa again. The Texas governor was here last week to help Republican candidates, including Gov. Terry Branstad, who is trying to get re-elected for a sixth term.

Sure he is, because Branstad is in such a tight race with his Democratic opponent that he needs Rick Perry to help pull him over the top. Anyone who believes that has the intelligence of a fence post.

What amazes me is that Iowa Republicans are putting up with Perry and publicly fawning over him. That’s just wrong.

Rick Perry is a Texas “Big Oil” pusher. He is in bed with the Texas oil and gas industry. This energy sector is the greatest threat there is to Iowa’s ethanol, biofuels and wind power industries.

That also means that Perry is the single biggest threat to Iowa corn and soybean prices because these are the inputs for ethanol, biodiesel and wind turbine companies located in the state as well as a threat to the energy companies investing in wind farms, and a threat to the future of farmers leasing land to wind farms.

“Why is that so?” you ask.

Because Perry’s oil and gas industry is the big money behind efforts to eliminate tax breaks and other crucial federal policies that have made wind, ethanol and biofuels profitable.

Take the Renewable Fuel Standard. Perry said, “I also think that there’s a time that these incentives mature and that they can go away.”

Remember that. The Texas governor, a potential 2016 presidential candidate, has long been a critic of the federal mandate, which requires that a certain amount of renewables be blended into the nation’s fuel supply.

Really, governor? How about the massive federal tax breaks the oil and gas industry enjoys? When, Governor, can those “go away”? I’ll bet my farm that you would never say that in Texas.

It is hard to believe that Perry has been received so politely and even enthusiastically by Iowa Republicans. By giving him the run of Branstad’s campaign, the message seems to be that Perry is received with open arms by Iowa Republicans.

Can you imagine a presidential candidate who advocates an end to subsidies to the oil and gas industry being cordially received in Houston? I can’t.

In past years, presidential candidates who trashed ethanol were at least challenged when they came to Iowa. And some, such as Arizona Sen. John McCain, lost Iowa in the November elections in part because of their position against Iowa’s treasures of corn, soybeans and wind power.

In case you don’t understand, an end to the blended fuel mandate and tax breaks for wind power would be “devastating to Iowa’s economy,” as Gov. Branstad himself has said.

Maybe Iowa Republicans will tell Perry how they feel about his position on support for corn, wind, ethanol and biodiesel when he appears on stage with the other 2016 GOP contenders, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, John Kasich, Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Kelly Ayotte, Bobby Jindal and Rick Santorum.

We had better send the message out loud and clear and now not later that for economic reasons, for sustainability, green energy, for jobs, and for the cleaner fuels of the future, in Iowa we will not support any candidate for national office who is not 100 percent behind our biorenewable and wind-powered energy initiatives.

From my Des Moines Register column March 3, 2014

Iowa Caucus Reforms 2014

The Iowa Presidential caucuses every four years are always under attack.

The 2016 caucuses are no exception.

Des Moines Register Senior Political Reporter Jennifer Jacobs explains.

"No remedies have yet been put in place to heal the Iowa GOP’s black eye from the vote-count embarrassment that unfolded after the 2012 Iowa presidential caucuses.

Two years ago today, Rick Santorum was announced as the official winner based on a certified vote, reversing Mitt Romney’s eight-vote win announced after 1 a.m. on caucus night."

Obradovich and Jacobs comment on Iowa caucuses (click for full video)

There are lots of critics of the caucuses but Jacobs reports many GOP operatives like and support the caucuses. I recently was interviewed by Nick Cary of Thomson Reuters and we talked about the significant admiration of the Iowa Presidential Caucuses by many Republican operatives specifically in Washington D.C. I've found the same to be true of the many Republican activists and professionals I know personally, many of whom are former students of mine. It's amazing how many professionals you produce in both political parties in 43 years as a professor at Iowa State University!

As we've said, the narrative of Presidential candidate selection with Iowa kicking off the process, New Hampshire following and then a short series of other primaries - Nevada and South Carolina to give some early regional diversity - is a pretty good way to manage the American political process. I have also talked at great length with New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner in his memorabilia-filled office in Concord. Gardner is the "dean" of SOS's holding that position since 1976! He is a big fan of "Iowa Caucuses First; a week later New Hampshire Primary Second."

The Iowa GOP has been preparing a series of changes in the Caucus procedures to improve the process. Of special importance is the creation of a better Caucus night operation. This includes:

1. Better training for the volunteers who preside over the thousands of precinct caucuses.

2. Create a vote counting process that is more consistent across all caucuses on the night of the big event.

3. Design a vote reporting system once each caucus votes which precisely delivers the exact vote to party headquarters. This will require a very simple but exact Internet and or phone-in system.

4. A data base that is user friendly, has verification redundancy, and can be quickly updated. The site needs to have a web site that each precinct chair can access after submitting the vote and he/she and at least two caucus officers from each precinct can verify.

5. A clear and simple information campaign to inform party leaders around the national and the news media on the reforms. This is vital to establishing a renewed credibility for the Iowa caucuses.

It's important to note that the validity of the Iowa Presidential Caucuses is totally centered on the reputation and integrity of Iowa as the best state to start the Presidential candidate vetting process. The reforms are crucial to restoring that reputation.



.

The 2016 Caucuses are starting ... TODAY!

Yes it's true. I am declaring December 15, 2013 as the official start of the 2016 Iowa Presidential Caucus season.

That's because the Des Moines Register conducted its first big poll of likely 2016 presidential contenders and their favorability. Below is the headline and all the information you need to know.

What!?

Paul Ryan heads the Republican preference?

Yes it's true.

The reason appears to be that Ryan is not Ted Cruz the Texas caffeinated Senator who actually had very low favorability among Iowa Republicans. Ryan actually made a deal with his Senate Democratic counterparts, got a budget approved, and for the first time in years sent out the word (for Christmas) that government can work even in these highly polarized times.

Hillary Clinton came up excellent among Democrats with almost 90% but she still scares and angers Republicans. There is no other Democrat on the horizon who could challenge Mrs Clinton.

Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum came in very high on the list right after Ryan which is a great surprise since the supposed big new superstars Cruz and Florida Senator Marco Rubio as well as the often talked about former Florida Governor Jeb Bush tanked in this poll.

Click on this image below to see a good video summary of the poll. we will analyze this in the coming months, years actually and we hope to launch an Iowa caucus class. We will let you know when the class is launched!

PC Rental Store Accused Of Using Webcams And Keyloggers To Spy On Customers

As Ronald Reagan used to say "Well, here we go again!"

"A PC rental store in the US called Aaron’s has been accused of spying on its customers with the built in web cameras on their computers and also using key logger software to monitor its customers activity.

The company has allegedly been using software called ‘PC Rental Agent’ which lets them monitor their customers PC activity and they can also shut a users computer down with the software if they haven’t paid their rental fees." More here

Now I've heard of everything!

Privacy has been so completely destroyed that we users of electronic devices need to assume that every computer and smart device we have has been (or will soon be) compromised. So what's a consumer to do? How can we surf the web, do online banking, shop at Amazon and otherwise live the life we live to day in this networked world?

Well, we can and MUST make it very, VERY painful for those who compromise our privacy is security. There need to be huge fines AND JAIL TIME for those who violate the, so far, inadequate federal and state laws on information security due diligence.

"The couple are currently suing Aaron’s, and it looks like it may end up turning into a class action lawsuit, as a number of other customers have also been spied on by the company."

If YOU ever end up on a jury with a case like this be fair, listen to the evidence and then throw the book at the culprits! If you are a judge look at the MAXIMUM sentencing guidelines! Deterrence and fear are the best weapon to reduce these atrocities against consumers.

And, if you own a store or hire people have them take out quick certification for identity theft prevention and the law!

The Iowa by Election of 2009.

The Democrats just won by a margin of 107 votes, an off-year special election in Iowa’s House district 90. The race was interesting and maybe even important because off year elections allow you to take the temperature of politics or better said see what direction the political wind is blowing.

This race was also interesting because it’s the first contest after the Iowa Supreme Court ruled that gay marriage in Iowa is legal because it is a constitutionally protected civil liberty. Because it is the first test of how the gay marriage issue might play out “outside” groups poured huge amounts of money into the race. The National Organization for Marriage was especially prominent and pro gay marriage groups also opened their wallets more than you’d expect in such a basically insignificant contest.

So what does the victory of the democrat tell us?

First, it tells us that the gay marriage issue, which was the prominent campaign theme, was not enough to swing this election.

Second, it tells us very little about support for gay marriage because although Republican Stephen Burgmeier was the recipient of the anti gay marriage largesse, Democrat Curt Hanson was actually also not a supporter of gay marriage. So the choice was between two candidates opposed to gay marriage one of which was the clear standard bearer of that cause (Burgmeier) and the other candidates emphasized other issues more. Let it be said that outsiders actually stoked the emphasis on gay marriage. Burgmeier himself may not have made that the central storm of this race. That too is a lesson to take away from this election.

Third, the Republican should have won the race because when there are open seats the “out” party in that jurisdiction (District 90) has the best chance of winning.

Fourth, judging from the private reaction of Republicans with whom I have spoken this was a big disappointment for the GOP.

Fifth, this race has put front and center the question of whether gay marriage is a “good” issue for Republicans to run on in 2010. As we know several Republican contenders for governor have said this would be their lead campaign issue. On the other hand Rep Steven King has decided NOT to run for governor and many INSIDERS have told me it’s because he believes that he could not run for governor successfully on his anti-illegal immigration and anti-gay marriage positions. Illegal immigration has shrunk as a hot button since the recession and other issues such as jobs and health care costs are more urgent for Iowa voters in 2010.

Sixth, the pending announcement that former Gov. Terry Branstad will run for governor has underscored the necessity for the GOP to use its former winning strategy of walking down the political center as the most successful road to political office. Both Branstad and Gov. Robert Ray were very successful by concentrating on non-divisive issues and harvesting majorities of voters in the state. There is no indication from GOP contests in the near past that moving to a more conservative corner of the political spectrum is a winning move. So, the race for the vacant seat in the 90^th district adds fuel to the internal struggle within the GOP in Iowa and is giving some new life to that “bigger tent” of GOP leaders, candidates, and voters who are not solely concerned with the divisive social issues.

Seventh, the race suggests that the GOP needs to re-examine its bigger course. The party is running behind both “no-party” and the democrats in registered supporters and has lost some 100 thousand adherents and now trails in third place. Although not framed in these “political science” terms the GOP in Iowa appears to have moved into the quadrant of “ideological political party” where it adheres to clear and hard positions on social issues regardless of what are the high intensity concerns of Iowa voters. Although admirable for its clarity and integrity this is the position taken by “Parties of Principle” (the Libertarians, Greens, Socialists) whereas elections in the United States are only won by “Parties of Pragmatism” (The Democrats and Republicans).

Pragmatic parties (and candidates) adjust their message and position to meet the salient interests of voters in order to gain a majority (or plurality) of those voters and win the election. Parties of Principle do not yield on their positions regardless of the mood and demand of voters and therefore only win when and if their hard position actually fits the current concerns of the electorate.

The 2008 election was lost by the republicans in part because of the true believers on the conservative right especially media celebrities like Rush Limbaugh, Michael Savage, Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, and others. They attacked republican candidate Sen. John McCain for not being conservative enough, forced him into choosing Sarah Palin as his running mate, pushed McCain far right on issues all of which put him too far to the right (into the former Barry Goldwater end of the spectrum) and lost him the vital independents that both parties need to “peel off” if they are to win elections.

Conservative Republicans seem to have forgotten that no true conservative has ever successfully won a national election. Ronald Reagan, the former democrat and tax-raising Governor of California never was identified with the divisive social issues which color the current party, George H. W. Bush was a moderate by any definition. George W. Bush was a hard-core hawk and NeoCon on defense but campaigned as a “Compassionate Conservative.”

This race is a very interesting case study of how al these issues come together and it forces the GOP and its candidates to study the results. On the other hand for supporters of gay marriage and for Democrats in Iowa the race is a cautionary tale because the Democrat who won is NOT a supporter of gay marriage. Thus, that issue will still simmer in 2010.

©2009 Steffen Schmidt, Prof of Political Science, ISU. Reprinted with permission from syndication @ http://www.insideriowa.com, Iowa’s Internet Magazine.

Economics is Dead. Now What do We do?

Politicians and Leaders Depend on the Experts. What if They are Wrong?

Steffen Schmidt

Politicians and policy makers depend on good, hard information. Otherwise their decisions will be as much “policy garbage out” as the “garbage in” data on which they made the decisions.

Sometimes politicians and leaders have a predisposition to do what they would like because they have a preferred direction in which they want to go regardless of facts. Thus they will look at reality through the lens of their preferred course of action. British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain (1937 to 1940) needed to believe Hitler because it was his deep desire not to have to confront Germany or divert resources to military spending. Thus he signed the Munich Agreement in 1938, conceding the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia to Germany. The rest is history.

Pres. Bush and Vice President Cheney wanted to believe that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction so they filtered out information to the contrary and decided to invade Iraq.

Now lets look at the decisions leaders have to make on the economy.

In 1824 the Supreme Court strengthened the federal government's power to regulate interstate commerce with its decision in Gibbons v. Ogden, which involved the authority to license shipping. The way Trusts concentrated wealth and economic power in the hands of a few business tycoons so alarmed the American public that Congress passed the Sherman Antitrust Act in 1890. Theodore Roosevelt was elected to the presidency in 1904 on a Trust-Busting platform. President Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal legislation effectively made the federal government the nation's chief regulator of business and the economy.

Then starting in the 1980’s we started deregulating business big time and ignored these historical reasons why business had been regulated in the first place.

Paul Krugman writes in a recent Op Ed piece (New York Times September 2, 2009), “It’s hard to believe now, but not long ago economists were congratulating themselves over the success of their field. Last year, everything came apart. Few economists saw our current crisis coming, but this predictive failure was the least of the field’s problems. More important was the profession’s blindness to the very possibility of catastrophic failures in a market economy.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.html

This is a serious disaster for policymakers. The problem is they now have nowhere to turn for accurate information to guide them on economic policymaking – taxing and spending to be precise. Economics has failed them and us.

And, this is not just a national or international problem. In Iowa government (and the rest of the economy) depends on three people who gaze into their statistical crystal ball and make economic forecasts. They are the Revenue Estimating Conference in the Iowa Department of Management.

“State general fund revenue estimates are generated by the Iowa Revenue Estimating Conference (REC). The REC is comprised of the Governor or their designee, the Director of the Legislative Fiscal Bureau, and a third person agreed upon by the other two members. The current membership of the REC is Charles Krogmeier; Dennis Prouty, Director of the Legislative Fiscal Bureau; and David Underwood, retired CFO and Treasurer, AADG, Inc. in Mason City, Iowa. The REC meets quarterly, generally in July, October, December, and April. The Governor and the Legislature are required to use the REC estimates in preparing the state budget.”

How accurate are their predictions?

Here is what radio Iowa reported about a readjustment of estimates on Friday, March 20, 2009.

Down, down, down: state tax revenue estimate drastically reduced

The Revenue Estimating Conference just met and the three-member panel has voted to reduce its estimate of state tax revenues for the current state budgeting year by $129.7 million. Their guess for next year has been reduced by $269.9 million. It will mean layoffs in state government according to the governor's chief of staff (who is one of the members of the Revenue Estimating Conference).

To me the operative terms in this story are “their guess.” One definition of the word “guess” is “an estimate based on little or no information.”

I guess (oops!) this could also mean that it could be “…an estimate made on the basis of malfunctioning macroeconomic models,” as Krugman would point out.

For us as Iowa farmers, professionals, business people, taxpayers, bankers, stock brokers, real estate developers, doctors, academics (especially university presidents), and so forth this failure of economics is no less a problem. We are now faced with a world in which we actually have no idea what lies ahead economically because the fundamental “wisdoms” of the economics and business professions were proven to be nothing more than fancy statistical smoke and mirrors. Ask long as the trajectory of change was incremental or decremental (i.e. slightly up or down) the models and wisdom of “the Dismal Science” held up. As soon as the future was not merely a slight adjustment of the past it all went wrong. Ask 5 economists a question and the joke goes you’ll get 6 different answers. That never happens in “real” science.

A quick read of the excellent Krugman article suggests that we desperately need to devise new ways of making fiscal and monetary policy as well as investment and regulatory decisions. With the Great Recession of 2009 the Great Discipline of Economics may also have been discredited.

Turns out they were mostly the Great Wizard of Oz and we have now peeked behind the curtain.

---------------------------------------

©2009, Steffen Schmidt, Prof of Political Science, ISU. Reprinted with permission from syndication @ http://www.insideriowa.com, Iowa’s Internet Magazine.

The Reelection of gov Culver of Iowa- How it will happen

How Culver Can Win, For Sure

Culver can get reelected. So here is how it’s done.

* Point out repeatedly that you stood up to the Republicans and your own party and said no to drastic budget cuts and slashing the programs that make Iowa a successful, great place to live and also said no to tax increases which would be a burden to all Iowans and small businesses in a weak economy.

* Splash every single cost saving measure and efficiency you can dream or make up. There are probably lots of little things that were done over the past four years that made programs leaner and more efficient, and that includes all the “right sizing” of departments, colleges and universities and your own state house office. Computerized management and all kinds of efficiency statistics and “metrics” (yeah, throw that term around at every whistle stop), sound scientific and serious and voters don’t know diddlysquat about this. Tell them, “I balanced the states check book every month and I rounded up a lot of stray official credit cards.” Iowans will be impressed since most of us have never balanced ours!

* Please Governor Culver, inject some humor and whimsy into your campaign! People love that if it’s tastefully done. Here is a free example – a nice TV spot well developed that shows a Culver’s Restaurant and says “Chet Culver: Good taste and less filling the pockets of big business, lobbyists and special interests.”

* Tell the classic “What is Politics” joke (reproduced here from the family web site About.com - http://politicalhumor.about.com/ edited a little bit.)

Culver can say at an adult rally, “My friends, a long time Iowa resident and voter told me the other day that his grandson had finally clarified for him what politics was all about. The story goes like this.”

A little boy goes to his dad and asks, "What is politics?"


Gp to insideriowa for the remainder of the story!

http://insideriowa.com/index.cfm?nodeID=17818&action=display&newsID=4263

How the GOP in Iowa Can Regain a Majority -

Republicans are chafing at the bit to get back into the governor’s seat and to regain some seats in the House and Senate. Democrats are anxious to hold on to their control of both.

In my last Iowa politics essay I told you how Culver could win and the Democrats hold on to a majority.

This is how Republicans can have their victory. (The full story in insideriowa.com)

InsiderIowa article by Schmidt

Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary - Number one!

In June of 2009 I spent two hours with Bill Gardner the Secretary of State of New Hampshire. He is in the blue shirt on the left, I'm in the middle and Peter Hildreth, Comish of Banking for New Hampshire and a long-time friend of Gardners when they served in the Hew Hampshire House is on the right. Peter, a very smart observer of New Hampshire government and politics, kindly arranged for the meeting.

Remember that Secretary of State is - SOS, the long time distress call of mariners!

In the case of Gardner nothing could be more apt. He's the one we call to fix primary politics every four years when it's about to go off the rail!

Brian Mooney of the Boston Globe wrote that "William M. Gardner may be the single most powerful man in the nation when it comes to setting the schedule of contests that will nominate the presidential candidates of both parties next year. But you'd never know it to drop by his office on the second floor of the venerable granite State House." (July 9, 2007)

I could not have put it better myself.

His office is small, cluttered, cozy, and totally unpretentious. So is Gardner - I mean, only the unpretentious part because he is well groomed, fit, and tall!

Gardner is a remarkable man who sets aside his own political views, loyalties, and ambitions and serves the cause of having New Hampshire give every little guy or gal the chance to run for President of the United States. l

Literally.

You fill ot a form in a very dignified way in the SOS's office in Concord at a special table, pay your $1,000 fee and you are now officially a candidate for President of the United States in the primary of the State of New Hampshire. Garder even has a glass covered framed exhibit of the lesser candidates right next to a vertible Louvre of the "major", big shot candidates who have run for President over the years in the Granite State primary.

And oh the stories I could tell you about snafus, glitches, arrogance, courtesies, and all manner of behavior from the distinguished folks who want to lead the republic! But I can't and won't because Gardner is a real gentleman who would never embarrass anyone in public. A man who truly believes that a primary in a small and attentive state and well as the more cumbersome but fascinating presidential First in the Nation Iowa Caucuses afford evey candidate and the voters and media of the United States a valuable opportunity to be heard and seen.

I imagine that Garder would be the kind of lawyer who would never lose a case. He is tenacious, a true believer in the New Hampshire process, and very well prepared. He is soft spoken but has an intensity i have rarely seen in a person. When we spoke (I should say when he told the riveting stories of the battles to keep the process of Iowa first and New Hampshire first too - caucuses and primary) his eyes sparkled. He remembered every name, phone call, reporter, columns they had written andn what they said, every return phone call, waiting game, abd strategic move anyone had made.

Gardner is the steward of the US presidential selection process and when we see how crucial the state has been ion the past in shaping the campaign to follow, it is no woder that Garnder has been reappointed SOS in New Hampshire by Democrats as well as republicans.

Talk about Mr. Bi-partisan or nonpartisan! Others could learn a great deal about this from Bill Gardner.

How's President Obama Doing so far?

A former student of mine who is now a navy officer in the Atlantic asked in a recent e-mail how I thought Pres. Obama (shown in this picture with his junior crew and the ships mascot) is doing.

I responded in Navy talk.

Since you asked, President, or as I like to call him, “Commander” Obama is trying like crazy to steer the USA out of the troubled and dangerous waters into which the previous captain and first officer navigated her.

But, he’s the captain of a ship with a starboard list, taking on water, has a broken shaft, and a badly fouled propeller. The fuel is running low and he’s run out of rum rations for the crew, the provisions have turned moldy, and the sailors have scurvy.

So far the ONLY good news is that there has not been a mutiny yet (Capt Obama’s approval ratings are still high at about 60%) but there are rumblings already. He has a “... limited amount of time to convince the public (his crew) that he is taking the right courses [assuming his GPS is working and the charts are correct LOL] and a finite period before the problems that he inherited become identified as his own political liabilities” according to the latest LA Times article.

However, his poll numbers are now slipping and there is concern that he has set the wrong course and is heading his ship of state towards Health Reform reef, the GMCBailout archipelago, and into hurricane DeficitSpending.

Other than that it's smooth sailing for the United States.

Oh by the way, did you take your Dramamine?!

I think I see white caps up ahead.

ALL HANDS ON DECK!

Should we have caucuses in 2012?

when I posted this discussion I worte "This blog is suspended until the next national election but we will monitor what's going on and how the conversation turns on the importance of the Iowa caucuses and first in the nation New Hampshire primaries."

CANCEL THAT!

After my two hour visit with Bill Gardner the charming Secretary of State of New Hampshire and the "GODFATHER" of the First in the Nation Primary and defender of the First in the Nation Iowa Caucuses, I cannot stop!

As we have discussed before, we favor a set of regional primaries in 2012 that follow the first in the nation caucuses in Iowa and the New Hampshire primary. These two are great testing grounds for candidates and a great opportunity for candidates with small budgets. After that it's all media and all money!

We now know that to change the presidential selection system to one where any big block of states would shut down the remaining primary campaigns would be a political disaster.

1. It would cut most of the United States out of the exciting and necessary process of making all states stake holders in the presidential candidate selection.

2. It would give BIG MONEY candidates all the advantage and big money now is already a huge problem.

3. It would make the year of a presidential election a news dead zone with nothing to report after the quick primary process ends. This would deprive Americans of a very important opportunity to be educated and to see democracy in action.

4. NOT having caucus return night in Des Moines, Iowa would deprive the world media of THE bigest US political event besides the New Hampshire primary returns from Dixville Notch which is where the first ballts are counted around midnight. "In a tradition that started in the 1960 election, all the eligible voters in Dixville Notch gather at midnight in the ballroom of The Balsams. The voters cast their ballots and the polls officially are closed one minute later. The result of the Dixville Notch vote in both the New Hampshire primary and the general election are traditionally broadcast around the country immediately afterwards." Wikipedia got it right this time!

Folks, these are the political theatre and magic which makes politics in a democracy so wonderful. What would we do without Jese jackson in a five piece suit kissing pigs in asome small rural town. How could we like without joe Lieberman turning down a pork chop ion a stick at the iowa fair (the fact that he is jewish may have caused this odd behavior but no one has EVER gotten the presidential nomination in the USA who did not eat pork in Iowa). What would we do during the doldrums of the summer before promaries without the theatre of the Ames, iowa GOP straw poll and all the magic, mystery, esxcitement, and hype that it creates?

Therefore, we are now working on organizing a mid term (2010) forum on caucuses and primaries for the next presidential race. We will be posting details here and sending a heads up in Face Book, Twitter, and to our mailing list.

Stay tuned! This blog is about so much more than the Iowa Presidential Caucuses.

Steffen Schmidt
Dr. Politics, Iowa Public Radio Talk@12 live on Wednesdays at noon USA central time.

Also subscribe to podcasts at Iowa Public radio and download them to iTunes.

2008 - The Dam Has Broken!

Iowa first followed by New Hampshire a week later.

Yeah, right!

That was then and this is now.

The dam has broken and the rush is on to move primaries earlier and earlier.

• SACRAMENTO, California (Reuters) - Seeking to give Californians a voice in choosing the next U.S. presidential candidates, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed into law on Thursday a bill to move the presidential primary election in the nation's most populous state to February 2008.
  "Moving up the primary from June to February gives California the influence it deserves in choosing the next presidential candidates," Schwarzenegger said at a news conference to commemorate the bill's signing.

Good idea Arnold.

And, good idea New Jersey, Florida, Missouri, Michigan and Texas. In fact half of the states are talking about moving up.

Bad for the Iowa caucuses? Probably not. Some experts believe that the Iowa caucuses will be even more important becuase a big win in Iowa (and good showing or win in nevada, new Hampshire, and South Carolina) would be like a super booster rocket in the big states.

So, come on down to Iowa in January of 2008! We are ready for you.

Nevada - Caucus Envy?!

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

You probably read this story.

• "The Nevada Democratic Party announced that it is hiring two Iowa Democratic veterans to run the Nevada 2008 presidential caucus. Jean Hessburg who was executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party in 2002 and 2004 elections will organize Nevada's Democratic caucus which will be held in early 2007. Jayson Sime who was Iowa's Democratic Party field and canvass director in 2004 will be the assistant to Hessburg. The Nevada Democratic presidential caucus will now be the No. 2 only five days after Iowa for the 2008 presidential marathon."

Iowa's caucuses have been so important precisely because they have been the first event in the American race for the White House. Since they became important in the 1970's, other states have been eying the first place in what can only be called "caucus envy" - Freud may have written about this but I'm not sure! It is a deep psychological sense of inadequacy at not being "as big" as the Iowa caucuses in giving presidential contenders visibility and the big "mo" - MOMENTUM!

Now comes late breaking word that New Jersey is also suffering from this condition. It goes more or less like this:

• TRENTON, N.J. --New Jersey lawmakers have approved a plan that would move the state near the front of the presidential primary lineup in a bid to give the Garden State more influence in selecting candidates. Proponents of the move say it's needed because presidential candidates often visit New Jersey to raise money but don't court votes because the state's primary has been scheduled well after races were decided. The state Senate voted 33-5 to move the state's presidential primary to the first Tuesday in February.

Here is another spin on this:

• "New Jersey will move from the back of the line almost all the way to the front. What had been the last presidential primary in the nation will now be held Feb. 5, 2008 - behind only the Iowa caucus (Jan. 14), Nevada caucus (Jan. 19), New Hampshire primary (Jan. 22) and South Carolina primary (Jan. 29). The Garden State joins what will be a new "Super Tuesday," as Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, New Mexico, North Carolina and Utah also are planning to hold primaries on the first Tuesday in February."

Now pay close attention here because this is where Freud comes into the picture:

• "New Jersey lawmakers last year voted to hold the presidential primary in late February, but had to move it even earlier as other states kept rushing their primaries toward the front. The move recognizes the long-standing resentment [one could say sense of inadequacy and helplessness] among voters that New Jersey was little more than a bystander when it came to choosing presidential candidates."

In Iowa we understand that being first means Iowa is always looking over its shoulders because someone is coming fast from behind.

We also understand that the Iowa caucuses have been an opportunity for little known candidates with very little money to test their message and personal political skills and style. "Retail politics", going from voter to voter rather than from TV Media Market to TV Media Market, has been a very useful process in the winnowing of candidates. A huge ragional or national primary would probably eliminate the lesser known and poorly funded aspirants to the White House.

How long can this last? Not foreover but Iowa has had a good run and done a great service to US democracy.

Iowa Political Caucus Exhibit! Excellent!

New major Iowa State Historical Museum project announced for 2007:

Museum to be information headquarters, media center and issues forum for Iowa Caucuses

State Historical Society of Iowa
600 E. Locust Street
Des Moines, Iowa
50319

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
Contact: Jeff Morgan, 515-281-3858December 21, 2006


DES MOINES The State Historical Museum today announced it is developing a new major project that will transform 9,000 square-feet of display space into an information headquarters, media center and issues forum for the Iowa Caucuses.

Caucus Iowa, scheduled to open in Fall 2007, will offer a first-hand look at Iowas first-in-the-nation caucuses how they work, why they work, how they affect candidates and their campaigns, and how they differ from every other step to the White House.

The project will also serve as a caucus training headquarters for world-wide media and provide an issues forum where campaign organizations, presidential candidates and the public can host events, deliver speeches and hold other activities.

Iowa's traditional first-in-the-nation caucuses focus the eyes of the nation and world on the state every four years, said Anita Walker, director of the Iowa Department of Cultural Affairs.

Intensive media scrutiny showcases all aspects of Iowa life, promoting the state, its people and resources in a manner that is unrivaled by any other single event. This project will define and explain the caucus method from a historical sense and create specific environments to experience this unique political process firsthand. It will be a rare opportunity to demystify citizen-democracy at work and celebrate it as a viable and necessary step in our presidential process.

With its emphasis on technology and electronics, the project will tell the story of the Iowa caucuses their rise to national significance in the 1970s, coffee shop campaigning, living room politics and the impact severe winter weather, special interest groups and the media have on them. The project will also track the whereabouts of 2008 presidential candidates as they campaign throughout the state. Iowans play a unique role in the nations presidential election process, Walker said.

The Iowa Caucuses set the stage for the rest of the nation by winnowing the field of candidates for the White House. Historically, the caucuses offer only three tickets out of Iowa, meaning candidates have to finish in the top three to have any realistic chance of continuing their campaigns. We believe this project will help to secure Iowas first-in-the-nation status, promote Iowa to national and international audiences and, most importantly, showcase citizen-democracy to increase participation in the caucus process.

Museum staff is working with a Caucus Advisory Board co-chaired by Gordon Fischer and Steve Roberts, both of Des Moines. The advisory board also includes:

Eric Branstad, Republican Party of Iowa
Dennis Goldford, Drake University professor
J Fink, Oskaloosa teacher
James Flansburg, former political writer for The Des Moines Register
Jason Follett, SHSI Board Member
Millie Frese, Marshalltown teacher
Teri Goodmann, Dubuque democrat
Wayne Haskovec, Hudson teacher
Gary Overla, Perry teacher
Matthew Schaefer, Hoover Museum, West Branch
Steffen Schmidt, Iowa State University professor, co-author of book "Issues in Iowa Politics"
Peverill Squire, University of Iowa professor
Tim Walch, SHSI Board Member
Hugh Winebrenner, author of book on Iowa Caucuses

The State Historical Society of Iowa is a division of the Iowa Department of Cultural Affairs and is a trustee of Iowas historical legacy and an advocate for understanding Iowas past. It identifies, records, collects, preserves, manages and provides access to Iowas historical resources. Its dual mission of preservation and education serves Iowans of all ages, conducts and stimulates research, disseminates information, and encourages and supports historical preservation and education efforts of others throughout the state.

Visit www.iowahistory.org or call 515-281-5111 for more information.

###