Democratic Party Language Lessons

Blogged in the Des Moines Register By:

Steffen Schmidt ·Dr. Politics

Des Moines, Iowa Several people I talked to at the Roast and Ride event in Boone on Saturday commented that the Democrats need to increase their vocabulary and include "Veterans" and "Patriots" in their vocabulary. Those were repeated throughout Joni Ernst's Roast and Ride event in Boone, Iowa.

Interesting comment. 

There were over 300 motorcycle riders in leather, American flag bandanas, and a variety of excellent gear. Most of them were veterans according to the organizers.

The Dems have always had a "problem" with the military, probably undeservedly so. They have also had problems with "patriotism" which many Democrats think is Chauvinism or jingoism. 

Obama himself in 2008 at first refused to wear an American flag pin on his jacket. That changed quickly when he came under criticism.

I know several Democratic liberals who think displaying the American flag is a bad idea because it implies US hegemony and "exceptionalism." They like one of the several "world flags."  Don't bring that up at a Republican event! 

(Left photo: One of the riders in the amazing tour from Des Moines to Boone)

 What do YOU think are the themes and language that Democrats need to incorporate into their 2016 campaign? Should the US flag be a major up front feature of Democratic events? 

Should there be prominent display of veterans and patriotic talk? 

Roast and Ride. Pork and "Hogs"

Joni Ernest’s First Roast and Ride

Steffen Schmidt

Senator Tom Harkin had a “Steak Fry” which became, a “ … longstanding Iowa tradition that started in 1972 on a local family farm to raise money for his first congressional campaign.” ABC News.

It became a national event featuring politicians who might eventually run for president.

Harkin retired and his successor Bruce Braley who one commentator said ran the worst campaign in the United States lost the race to Republican Joni Ernst.

Interestingly Ernst launched her own tradition on June 6.  She called it Roast and Ride. Roast for the hog roast and ride for the motorcycle ride mostly on Harley “Hogs.”

It’s my job to share political analysis with you.  I attended Marco Rubio’s event in Ames, Iowa in the morning and then rushed to Boone to be among the first in line for Ernst’s gathering.

Rubio was well received and came across as extremely likeable, humorous and self-deprecating.  The story had just broken about his and his wife’s many driving tickets in Florida. One guy behind me said to his friends “So, he’s a regular guy. Like all of us he got tickets. So what?”

I think Rubio has a good chance of doing well in Iowa maybe coming in third in the caucuses after Scott Walker and Rand Paul.

The Boone event was impressive and underreported by the media. The numbers of attendees was MUCH greater than most reported. The level of enthusiasm was intense. The attendees are VERY likely Iowa caucus voters so they are a key group in February 2016.

There were too many and too long speeches by Iowa politicians – Gov. Branstad, Chuck Grassley, Steve King, etc. Memo to Senator Ernst: Next time have them all up on the stage and thank them for their work on behalf of Iowans. The people I was sitting with in the front row of the event – Dr. Politics does not sit in the back of an event – were twitchy and wanted to hear from the presidential contenders.

(Picture: Carly Fiorina had a booth. Poor organization) 

The one conversation that came up with several Democrats I consulted (there were no Democrats at Ernst’s event as far as I could tell) was: “How will Democrats top this?’

There was no answer. But several of the conservative Republicans attending the Boone event answered that questions this way. “Maybe they can serve a vegetarian alternative to the pork sandwiches.” And “How about offering free gay weddings?”  One said “Instead of Harley’s maybe a parade of abortion doctors riding in convertibles with the top down.”  One lady said, “Instead of the band The Nadas I think they should invite Bruce Jenner, is it Caitlin now? to entertain.”

Ouch!

The Republicans have their brand. God, Harley’s, veterans, patriotism and hog roasts. For 2016 the Democrats badly need to brand themselves and own the conversation. 

The OPM and other federal agencies were hacked by someone this week. At least four million records were accessed including name, birth date and place, and Social Security numbers. The Chinese are suspected by the US government. These hacks are becoming more common. Probably by 2016 the records of EVERY American will have been illegally accessed and is available for criminal or other uses.

There are three problems.  

1. Most employees in government OR the private sector (See the Target hack and others) have NO training in security. The threat of cyber attacks is recent and we are not trained to deal with these issues. 

2. The federal, state and local governments have almost NO chance of hiring cyber-security experts because these make 3X more in the private sector and there is a huge shortage of people trained in these skills.  

3. We are cutting BIG GOVERNMENT because many members of Congress think it's bad. So most agencies can't hire new people in new areas such as information protection and security.
Between international criminal organizations and foreign governments launching attacks the United States is hosed. 

We should be asking EVERY Presidential contender what they would do about this serious national issue. Cutting budgets is probably not going to protect the United States and Americans from cyber attacks. 

Schmidt in the New York Times

Some of you wanted to know what TRIP GABRIEL and PATRICK HEALY (MAY 31, 2015) wrote about Mrs. Clinton's race for the White House and Bernie Sanders stoking many "lonely" Iowa Democrats.

"Mr. [Bernie]  Sanders’s stop at a brewery in Ames on Saturday was so mobbed that more than 100 people who could not fit inside peered through the windows.

Along with a picture of the scene he posted on Twitter, Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University who teaches a course on the caucuses, wrote, “Hillary should worry.”

"Iowa Democrats “truly hate Clinton’s ‘listening tour’ campaign,” Mr. Schmidt said in a follow-up email exchange. “They feel neglected.” 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/01/us/politics/challenging-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-gains-momentum-in-iowa.html 

Yes, Clinton is way ahead of the game but often overconfident sports teams suffer the consequences of hubris. Don't forget that in 2008 Clinton was certain she would win the Iowa caucuses and the Dem nomination. She lost Iowa and had to fight a losing delegate battle until June with an upstart Barack Obama. 

One Sandinista (or is it Sandernista!) told me at the latest Sanders event "Steffen, please tell people Bernie is in this for the victory not just to influence the debate."I had the feeling that she was TOTALLY committed to Sanders populist message and to his passion about income inequality. 

Have you joined my FREE  Internet course which starts in September yet? 

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Could not do the Rachel Maddow show dammit!

This afternoon I had a very nice call from Andrew (Andy) Dallos, producer of the Rachel Maddow show.

It was late in the day so I couldn't get studio and satellite time - I live in central Iowa we are not New York and need a few hours to plan things!

They wanted me on the show to talk about my analysis in the New York Times today. Hillary needs to reexamine her campaign and maybe fire her manager. WHAT!?

I was quoted in the Times regarding the Iowa Democratic contest in Iowa. Hillary Clinton has been the only Democrat running for president, has oodles of cash, total name recognition. She's ahead in the polls.

But there is tension in Iowaland.

Bernie Sanders has been aggressively campaigning in Iowa and the crowds have been astonishing large. I blogged and Tweeted about his latest visit to Ames, Iowa home of the first in the nation caucuses. I spoke to dozens of Democrats and I know many of them in my 45 years in Ames.

Here is the takeaway. Many of the  Democrats are angry that Clinton has not come to town to rally the partisans.

She's been doing a "listening tour" instead which is the subject of media and Democratic activist ridicule.

Sorry Rachel. Maybe next time.


Meanwhile reserve a place in the dwindling slots in my FREE, Internet course on the Iowa Caucuses. First session Sept 1.  Go here:  https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/

Robby Wells is in Iowa to win the caucuses

Maybe the national news media is ignoring him but Robby Wells (screen shot of his site on left) showed up in Iowa this week.

• He's got a big cool bus.
• He plans to hit all 99 counties.
• He intends to defeat Hillary Clinton in the caucuses, win new Hampshire, and then go on get the democratic nomination.
• He's a long shot. 
• His campaign is counting on him being "the most different and unusual Democrat in the race" I hear from one of my inside contacts. 
• His economic plan sounds "Reaganesque" - it's called "Eaglenomics."
• But remember Hillary, Barak Obama was a way long shot. I mean - "Barak" and then "Hussein" and a black candidate?! 

I've got my eye on Robby.
More here later.

His web site is:

http://www.robbywells2016.com/

Where's Bernie?!

If you can figure our where Bernie is in the crowd this Saturday in Ames, Iowa you can see.

The 2 pm rally at the new Torrent Brewing Company was a shock. People started arriving at 11 am and had filled the facility to Fire Marshall limits (which were rigorously enforced) by 1 pm.

The crowd was remarkably diverse with people of all ages, some of my Latino and black friends, and many political independents.

"Who cares about independents in a party controlled caucus process?" you ask.

In Iowa they can go to the Democratic caucus in their precinct, register as Democrats on caucus night and participate. In New Hampshire, of course, they can just vote in the Democratic primary, So in 2016 these independents could be very significant.

I read an article about Bernie Sanders only attracting people 72 years old (his age) in New Hampshire. If that's true then they are much better mobilizers in Iowa because I talked to about a dozen 17-year-old students who will be 18 on caucus night and they were pumped about Bernie.

"WHAT, Dr. Politics!" you exclaim. "How can young people be excited about someone their grandfathers age?!"

All I can say is "Do you remember Ronald Reagan?" Reagan mobilized more young people for the Republican Party than any recent contestant.

The youth in Ames were excited about Sanders "honesty" and the fact that he is not directly taking any Super PAC or PAC money. They had seen his serious and meaty Tweets and loved them and told me they had reTweeted. They also were excited about his emphasis on affordable college and better education.

My greatest surprise today was that so many people at the event were the most active Democrats in Story county which, don't you forget, is The Cradle of the Modern Iowa Presidential Caucuses. (If you didn't know please join my FREE, online course that launches Sept 1.
https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/ But, reserve now as we are filling up fast.

Below the overflow from a FULL rally facility.

Dr. Ben Carson for President

Tom Fontaine the well respected reporter, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review asked me to comment on the chances Dr. Ben Carson as a presidential contender. Here is my take on Carson.

Iowa Republicans love Dr. Ben Carson. He's been several times and gotten rousing applause. He's very quiet but his fierce conservative position is admired. His statement that "America is like Nazi Germany" went over well in 2014 at the Polk County, Iowa GOP straw poll, but probably would not be a good campaign motto for him going forward. 

He just won the Georgia GOP County Chairs straw poll with 76%, which is amazing. 

He and Carly Fiorina are the most interesting and "outsider" candidates since neither has held office and is not a politician. One is black the other a woman so that will split their attraction to the GOP caucus and primary voters. They and the two Hispanic GOP contenders give this field lots of diversity. However in Iowa 12-15 Repubs running for prez will no doubt badly split the voters.  So even though there is excitement about Carson (and Fiorina who actually got even bigger buzz at the big GOP dinner recently), there are others like Walker, Huckabee, Bush (Carson tied with Jeb in the latest poll for first place), Rubio, and Ted Cruz who are seen as more likely to build a strong caucuses machine. 

On Iowa caucus night organization is 97.6% of victory because you need your people one at least, to push the voters in each of 1700 precincts. 

Running a nation is not exactly like separating twins in surgery. You've got to work with a lot of powerful people in Congress and you have to balance all kinds of contradictory and conflicting interests in a process we call "politics". If you hate politics that's tough luck because government and Democracy functions because of politics do you have to learn how to make it work. 

One of my wisest GOP activist friends in Iowa told me a couple of weeks ago, "Steffen. All those goofballs posting dumb comments about Carson changing things because he's not a Washington insider may be hoping for better. But, if you don't know how it works – the political process- it's like a person whose never flown a 747 taking over the cockpit. The plane may never take off but if it does watch out for the landing!" 

I'm afraid on "D" Day (or "C Night" as we call caucus night),  many Republicans may come to the same conclusion. Or else maybe they'll give Ben Carson a victory as a symbolic gesture as they did with Huckabee, Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan, and Michelle Backmann@ the Ames Straw Poll. 

For now he is certainly getting a lot of GOP buzz. 

 There are still spaces open in the FREE Internet class on the caucuses and presidential selection that I'm preparing for Sept 1. Reserve your place here.

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Hillary Clinton "Third Term'?

There is a lot of noise about Hillary Clinton's election as president being either Bill Clinton or Barack Obama's "third term" as president.

The New York Times even ran an article headlined "Hillary Clinton Tamps Down ‘Third Term’ Chatter."

The argument is that if you can accuse her of not being her own self and just a third term for the policies of her husband or president Obama voters will ignore her and not support Clinton for president.

I've talked to several of my former students who are now political professionals in both the Democratic and Republican parties and asked them for their assessment of the Republican strategy to paint Clinton as a tag-along.

"Steffen, Bill Clinton left the White House with pretty high approval ratings," said Michaela Rantz who works as a campaign strategist for the GOP. Indeed, in 2001 his approval rating was 67% among "Independents" and an amazing 93% among Democrats (but only 39% among Republicans). Rants said "Bill Clinton could have easily been reelected for a third term so I worry that Republicans are actually stopking the wrong fire when they say Hillary would be a third Clinton term."

I checked the latest polls and found that in the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll " ... 56 percent of people have a positive view of the former president while just 26 percent hold a negative one." Clinton beat George Bush and Barack Obama and was clearly the most popular political figure in the United States. Counterintuitive though it seems, Bill Clinton's approval ratings shot up with the impeachment effort by Republicans and has stayed up.

Sam Stinten, my former honors student who now works for a Democratic think tank thinks that President Obama's approval ratings will rise over time. He currently has approval of 45% of Americans polled by Gallup. "The trend line for Obama has been slow but steady up from a low of 41% in July of 2011," Stinten noted. " we are hardly hearing a word from Republicans about "Killing Obama Care" anymore since the insurance industry and hospitals are dead set against another disruption of healthcare." 

By contract George W. Bush's approval rating as compiled by Real Clear Politics from six independent polls is a miserable 29% with 65.2% disapproving of the former president.

The point being that Republicans may want to rethink their strategy of saying that Hillary Clinton would be a third term of the Clinton or Obama presidency. It could be more of a positive than a negative for her. On the other hand it's clear why Jeb Bush wants to distance himself from his brother's eight years at the helm.

(Names of my students in this column are pseudonyms)

Dr Politics on the Daily Show

Yesterday I spent over two hours taping an interview on the Iowa caucuses for the Daily Show with Jon Stewart.

It was a gas!

Comedian and "Latin Correspondent" Al Madrigal (on the left in the selfie) did the endless interview.

They will slice, and dice, and intersperse the cuts from the video with shots of pigs, the Iowa State Fair, corn, ethanol and God only knows what else!

Once again I found out that for the Iowa caucuses there are several things "baked in" that the media wants and needs.

1. Ethanol and why are politicians running for President forced to support ethanol? I said they are NOT forced but that contradicts the story so it's ignored.

2. Corn. Every corny image or joke about corn which comes up again and again.

3. Pigs or hogs. After Joni Ernst make hogs the buzzword of her awesome campaign Iowa and hogs are eternally wedded together.

4. White people.  Iowa is mostly European immigrants and as the media calls them "white people." Not enough diversity as far as the world is concerned never mind when I mention immigrants - German, Irish, Italian, Norwegians, Swedes, Dutch, Czech, - the media says "white" after each of these!

5. The State Fair and deep fried food. 

I'm dying to see how they concoct a humorous piece about the caucuses from all the hours of material they shot!

The episode will be linked in my FREE, Internet course on the Iowa caucuses that YOU need to sign up for right now at

https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.orghttps://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org

Hillary Clinton's odd Dillemma.

The New York Times has an interesting poll this week on the 2016 Presidential contenders.

To me the most interesting finding was the response about Hillary Clinton which is summarized in this chart.

The "Honesty" issue is definitely a negative. When she is pitted against a Republican this could become an issue. Yet it's not an insurmountable problem because Richard Nixon was deemed a "crook" and yet he was elected President.

Her "strong leadership" score on the other hand is an important asset that will help her make a case for her candidacy. As I've written elsewhere no other contender has been Secretary of State. No other candidate has lived for eight years in the White House.

The overall take away from the poll according to the times was that, "Hillary Rodham Clinton is viewed more favorably than she was earlier in the year despite weeks of scrutiny about her ethics. Among Republicans, opinions are largely unformed, with many voters indicating openness to a variety of candidates in a large and still-growing field."

The GOP candidates receiving the highest "don't know enough about the candidate" were John Kasich (72%) and Carly Fiorina (68%). Chris Christie had the highest "Would NOT consider voting for" (45%). Marco Rubio had the highest "Would consider voting for" (37%).

Scott Walker had the highest score (21%) in a recent Quinnipiac Poll of likely Iowa caucus participants. .

  

Maybe O'Malley Has a Second Life

Martin O'Malley was on the City Council of Baltimore, MD. Then he was mayor of Baltimore. Then Governor of Maryland.

This week being associated with Baltimore is a dubious political asset.

The death of a black youth, the rioting, looting, fires. The revelations of "rough rides" in police paddy wagons that are all steel and seem to have NO rider safety padding or airbags has jolted the nation.

O'Malley has been mentioned as a potential contender against Hillary Clinton for the 2016 race to the White House. It turns out that he was also the architect of a "zero tolerance" police policy when mayor of Baltimore. That policy, associated with Republican New York Mayor Rudi Giuliani, is now blamed for a sharply deteriorating community and police relations.

To be fair, this no tolerance approach to law enforcement was also pushed by President Bill Clinton. Lots of money for more cops and more law enforcement was pushed out from Washington during that time when crime in Baltimore and the United States was high and everyone wanted more law and order.

I wrote and said on several radio shows that O'Malley would now be toast because there is now a reassessment of the Giuliani law enforcement model. O'Malley would be blamed for the current crisis in Baltimore and liberals, Democrats, and Blacks would reject O'Malley as a viable contender.

Then several astute observers of the national political scene and former students of mine shared with me their analysis. No one likes urban riots regardless of how these are justified. No one likes a black man shooting a young undercover police officer in New York as happened just days after the Baltimore fiasco. In most American cities black crime is a real issue and "white flight" to the suburbs which we don't talk about much anymore is largely responsible for turning some neighborhoods in cities into truly neglected and poor minority residences.

O'Malley may be able to re-own his law-and-order role as mayor and make a case that high crime rates are an existential barrier to prosperity and a happy future for America's poor minority communities. If I were O'Malley I would do a "Full Bill Clinton" and put my head down, push forward with no apologies, and bite my lower lip feeling the pain" of the law abiding black citizens who live in these violent communities while at the same time condemning illegal and violent behavior by law enforcement.

There may be a second life for O'Malley after all if he plays the spin right.

"Ready for Hillary?" Or maybe ...

If America is not "Ready for Hillary" how about Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire who has been governor of that state, Senator Debbie Stabenow or Senator Amy Klobuchar?

Suddenly there is a buzz about the "troubles" of Hillary Clinton's campaign. 

There is the horrible roll out of the campaign with the embarrassing "Scooby" SUV ride to Iowa followed by ... nothing. No real campaign followup. It looks more like the Bruce Braley campaign for the Senate in Iowa. Maybe she has the same campaign manager as Braley.

The "E-mail Gate" issue of her using servers from her home instead of official government servers as Secretary of State is more alarming now that we have heard about all kinds of money flowing to the Clinton Foundation that was NOT reported which has led to the Foundation "refiling" their income taxes which is also not good for a politician. AND, even after Hillary Clinton decided to run for President they are still receiving money from foreign donors.

Finally there is the almost unstoppable talk about the Clinton "Icky Money" machine and the New York Times story about the Russian government uranium company buying up uranium companies world wide and the convoluted money trail (through Canada which does not allow disclosure) to the Clinton Foundation and the $500K speaking fee Bill Clinton received in Russia.

All of these are very,VERY troubling.

No Democratic campaign should be under such a relentless barrage of very negative discussion from people like Chuck Todd, Political Director for NBC News and moderator of Meet the Press, who is one of the most respected commentators on politics in the United States.

As I've noted in several publications and media appearances on the Trent Rice and Arnie Arnesen shows I have suddenly come under attack by Democratic Party people who say these are all right wing Republican attacks and should be ignored. They are wrong. These are issues that any sane and sensible American should be concerned about in a potential President.

In May of 2016 I am hearing lamentations by many Democrats that they "coronated" Clinton and did not encourage a diverse field of contenders to run for the White House.  For those of you from Possum Bottom it means to crown like a royal sovereign who "inherits" power.

I also believe that it's not nearly too late for Democrats to jump into the race and Bernie Sanders of Vermont has just declared that he plans to run. After all as I write this it's still almost a year until the Iowa Caucuses.

Some Democrats are saying that Jerry Brown of California would make a powerful contender. He has held several administrative positions and has taken his state through crises. He is a "take no prisoners" politician. He was California's 34th Governor from 1975 to 1983, mayor of Oakland (1999–2007) and Attorney General of California (2007–2011). He was elected governor again in 2010 and re-elected in 2014. On October 7, 2013, he became the longest-serving governor in California history. He is also the youngest governor since 1860 and now the oldest governor of California.If you can run the sixth biggest economy in the world you are in a great position to lead the number one economy in the world. 

Note that there is a Jerry Brown for President Facebook page.I don't think Jerry Brown created it but that could be the start.

Martin O'Malley and the Baltimore, MD Police Case.

I was just reading an article on the Baltimore, MD death of the young black man whose neck was broken. Suddenly BOOM! A 2016 potential presidential contender's name appeared. Here is the posting. Can you verify that Martin O'Malley implemented the "take no prisoners" policy?

I was born and raised in Baltimore City. I grew up in a working class part of the city and now live in the suburbs of Baltimore and travel into downtown Baltimore daily for work. The relationship between the police and the citizens has never been worse. The police that patrol these neighborhoods treat pretty much every citizen of color that they encounter with open contempt. The neighborhood Freddie Gray came from is poverty and crime ridden and has been for decades as such those individuals and families that live there are low hanging fruit to the police.There is also the matter of zero tolerance a policy that was introduced to Baltimore and implemented by former Mayor now Presidential candidate Martin O'Malley. This policy of "broken windows"policing was modeled after what Giuliani implemented in the city of New York. O"Malley even brought in a police commissioner from New York Ed Norris(He later went to prison for fraud btw).In Baltimore zero tolerance was aimed at the poor and black citizens who were jailed for minor offenses and saddled with criminal records for infractions that ranged from jaywalking to drinking a beer on their own front porches. Such was the plight of young Freddie Gray who unfortunately "looked" in the direction of a Baltimore cop who needed to meet his daily arrest quota. He paid the price for that mistake with his life. May he finally now Rest in Peace.

 Have you enrolled yet for my FREE, online, interactive Iowa caucuses course that starts Sept 1?

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Fox News came calling.

https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/ Go here and sign up fpr my FREE caucuses online class.
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Chicago based Fox News correspondent Mike Tobin and his crew of 6 came to Ames and Nevada.

(Picture by Meriesa Elliott: Tobin left and Schmidt, 2015)

The story?

"Do candidates for president have to knuckle under to the ethanol industry in Iowa if they want to win the caucuses?"

The answer is NO!

"Well how do conservative small government Republican justify the federal Renewable Fuel Mandate (RFM) that requires gasoline to be blended with ethanol.?"

The answer is that the United States asked us to ramp up an ethanol industry in order to help the US

a. Become more energy self sufficient
b. Replace the very toxic which was the previous additive blended in gasoline because ethanol was deemed to be much more environmentally friendly
c. Encourage a "renewable" fuel (ethanol) which had been successfully used for decades in Brazil.
Investors, many of them farmers, put their money into new companies which built and ran ethanol plants. farmers planted sufficient corn to supply these plants with the input to make ethanol. 

A tax incentive and a mandate to blend fuel with ethanol made all of this feasible.

The tax incentive went away. Blending gasoline with ethanol continued to drive supply that made the economics of ethanol work.

Then it became a political issue.

Tea Party and small government Republicans began to question the mandate; forcing consumers to buy a product.  Shades of ObamaCare which forces Americans to buy healthcare insurance. Environmentalists said ethanol production uses up too much water, stresses farms with too much production of corn, diverts corns from feed and human consumption, and the claim that ethanol is bad for engines was added to the attack on this industry.

Now the question is whether presidential candidates must obey the rule of supporting the RFS.

I think not.

Republicans can realistically argue that phasing out the RFS and allowing market forces to sustain the industry rather than suddenly yanking the plug is the responsible thing to do. Freshman Iowa GOP Senator Joni Ernst successfully used that line of reasoning in her campaign.

Ethanol and Politics 2016

Once again I was asked by a reporter about ethanol and the Iowa 2016 presidential elections. My answer roughly is the following:

Every state has interest groups that press candidates for office on issue of importance to them.

In Texas you can’t win a dog catcher race if you don’t support oil tax breaks "Over the past century, the federal government has pumped more than $470 billion into the oil and gas industry in the form of generous, never-expiring tax breaks. Once intended to jump-start struggling domestic drillers, these incentives have become a tidy bonus for some of the world’s most profitable companies”

In Massachusetts I assume it’s lobsterman tax breaks. In Georgia, peach tax incentives. In West Virginia it's coal.Washington State it would be salmon and apples.

In Iowa we remember that the federal government and the American people put out a call to save the environment, make the US energy independent, and create a renewable fuels industry. Iowa farmers, ethanol and bio diesel investors responded. Hundreds of millions where spent on ethanol plants and farmers planted the necessary corn and soy beans to make those fuels.

The tax break is gone but the RFS still drives demand for ethanol and helps keep the farmers and ethanol refineries solvent.

It would be strange if there were not a strong lobby to keep the requirement for 10% blend of fuels with ethanol in place. Yanking the plug on RFS would probably kill ethanol and drive corn and bean prices down disastrously.

The alternative is to go back to gasoline blended with Methyl tert(iary)-butyl ether (MTBE) which contaminated groundwater and had a huge negative impact, one reason why we switched to less harmful ethanol.

Of course ethanol and RFS is not the only issue contenders for the White House are facing in Iowa.

There is same sex marriage, the IRS, abortion, climate change, farm dust regulations, gun "confiscation" and of course the national debt.

Those opposed to “Big Government” mandating that American consume a product such as ethanol-blended fuels (mostly conservative Republicans) have a hard time siding with those mandates.

Oddly enough, the interest groups pushing for continued federal EPA mandates for blended fuels are mostly Republicans and conservatives. And they are simultaneously opposed to the EPA even as they demand that the EPA continue to require blending!

So politically for the caucuses it’s simply a matter of walking the fine line and each candidate has to do a “Full Joni Ernst” on this issue which means say EXACTLY what she did during her campaign and afterwards. Say that eventually subsidies will not be necessary because the industry can be economically profitable without big government mandates. But, don't say exactly when the industry including corn farmers can cut the umbilical cord to mandated fuel standards. Just not right now.

The perfect political balancing act!

Huckabee in 2016?

Have you reserved a place yet to join me on Sept 1? 

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Did you Know?

"Evangelical Christians make up 49 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners, according to a Pew Research polarization data set from 2014 consisting of 10,000 interviews. White evangelicals represent 40 percent of Republican leaners. They represent as much as 80 percent of the primary vote in the Deep South and, more significantly, around 60 percent of Iowa caucus-goers." NY Times *
What's the significance of these numbers for the 2016 election? 

As the brilliant Nate Cohen suggests in his column in the Times it means we should be scrutinizing GOP presidential candidates for their appeal to Christian Evangelical and cultural conservative voters. 

That candidate, if he enters the race, is Gov. Mike Huckabee. As an evangelical minister and winner

of the Iowa caucuses and five states in 2008, Huckabee still is probably the leading candidate for Evangelicals. 

(Photo from Huckabee Facebook page)

Cohen notes, "... the religious right remains [in 2015-16] the single largest voting bloc in the Republican Party." That means Huckabee can shine in Iowa, South Carolina and several other states sucking evangelical voters away and depriving other Republican contenders such as Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, and Scott Walker of these crucial voters.

Can Huckabee win the primaries in the big GOP primary states such as Florida, Illinois, and California and get the nomination? Probably not. So it's likely that he will change the dynamics and open space for candidates such as Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, or Ohio Gov. Kasich who is waiting for God to tell him what he should do with his life.

If he were nominated could Huckabee win the general election in November? Evangelicals and social conservatives say yes and blame GOP losses on the nomination of RINO's such as John McCain and Mitt Romney. However, polls indicate that Huckabee would be too convervative for a general election.

My suggestion is for us to keep a close eye on Huckabee, see if he enters the race - he already has a very interesting web site where is asking for donations. http://www.mikehuckabee.com/.

Then, when he thrown his hat into the contest, let's track the approval polls. Remember that with a field that now could be as big as 19 GOP contenders and Hillary Clinton as the Democratic candidate the 2016 caucuses will be the most exciting since 1972!

*http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/21/upshot/mike-huckabee-would-be-a-more-important-candidate-than-you-might-think.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&abt=0002&abg=0

Iowa Caucuses trailer

The technicalities of getting delegates

We all read about who "won" the Iowa caucuses in January or February of election years.

There is an assumption that "winning" means actually getting delegates to the national convention of their respective parties.

That's only partly true. in the Iowa GOP caucuses NO delegates are harvested because it's a pure "beauty contest" where caucus voters express their preference or support for candidates.

The best description I've ever seen on how delegates are actually harvested today is the 2015 article by Jim Rutenberg in the New York Times Magazine.

"The process by which presidential candidates are nominated is, at its most basic level, a race toward a magic number of party delegates — in the Republican Party’s case, 1,235 required to win — amassed state by state and, in some cases, congressional district by congressional district. Getting them depends not only on the speechifying, door-to-door vote-hunting and million-dollar ad buys we associate with campaigning, but also on a bewildering array of procedural minutia: obscure national bylaws that overlay a mind-bending patchwork of local rules that can vary drastically from state to state, some of which award delegates not based on votes received in primary elections but on back-room wrangling at local party conventions and meetings that take place weeks or even months after votes are cast." Article title: The Best Reason to Take Rand Paul Seriously Has Nothing to Do With His Politics. 


Beyond this great explanation of how candidates become THE party standard bearer is his conclusion that Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and his organization are the very best team in figuring out how to harvest the most delegates by meticulously fulfilling all the draconian rules that regulate delegate selection. Please remember that in the last election cycle the Paul family organization (Congressman (Retired) Ron Paul followed by Rand Paul) actually came out of Iowa with an amazing delegate count and controlling the Iowa GOP no easy feat.

Go read the full article and then remember the lesson you have learned here today. The winning candidate is the one who understands the complex delegate selection rules in every state in the nation. Can you say Barack Obama 2008? That's how he beat Hillary Clinton.

Please reserve your place in my FREE fall caucuses class. Click on image below.

Iowa Presidential Caucuses: Caucuses Insights from Pravda

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