Caucuses Insights from Pravda

My friend Andrej Matisak, Deputy Head of Foreign Desk of the newspaper Pravda, in Braatislava, Slovakia often asks me to comment on US politics for his readers. I have been to Bratislava, the capital city and Nitra at the Agricultural University on a wonderful academic trip.  Shortly after that Slovakia and the Czech Republic split up into two countries but I was assured by high government

officials that it had nothing to do with my trip!

Andrej asked me about the possibility of alternative candidates to Hillary Clinton. My answer was that if other Democrats such as O'Malley, Warren, Biden, Webb, or Schweitzer want to run in 2016 they need to prepare for that possibility NOW.

Of course, Vermont Democratic Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders has been to Iowa and New Hampshire with huge reception by liberal Democrats and Independents. I think these alternative contenders need to be ready in case Clinton implodes and "e mail Gate" proves to be a serious problem.

Right now Clinton seems hard to knock off the mountain. But, like a spare tire, several of them need to identify and hire campaign staff, raise funds, appear at some events, try to help the Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic Parties with fund raising.

The Republicans are ok but they need to concentrate on finding a good candidate who can attract independent voters in November and who has a great sense of organization for a national campaign. THEN they need to have their themes for attacking Clinton ready if & when she begins her campaign but I think July & August when people slowly start to get interested in elections. Others think Clinton will announce in May to begin to excite the Democratic base which has been languishing without a political arena so far.

Question: "After the failure in 2008, how ready is Hillary Clinton right now?"

Hillary Clinton is surely learning from her 2008 mistake in Iowa of taking a caucus victory for granted and letting Barack Obama walking away with a shocking, surprise victory in Iowa. She needs to campaign in all 99 Iowa counties perhaps on an awesome bus tour.

You know she won almost every big state in 2008 but she came out wounded from Iowa by Obama's victory. Obama put his head down and pushed forward to every state in the country until he gathered enough delegates to be the formidable Clinton.

However, I see no Barack Obama to face Hillary Clinton in 2016.

If she repeats her success in the big states after a victory in Iowa and New Hampshire she will glide to the nomination and can keep her ammunition money and attacks on Republicans dry and use it strategically. It would be a monumental campaign with Clinton vs Bush or Rand Paul, or Ted Cruz.

I believe that a Clinton/Cruz race would be an especially bloody and nasty campaign.

Rand Paul Launches his campaiggn.

This week for my online Iowa Presidential caucuses class, I interviewed AJ Spiker who is one of Rand Paul's inside circle. (See picture in front of the Grant Wood mural in the Parks Library at Iowa State Univeristy)

Rand Paul is the second Republican to officially announce his run for the White House. Ted Cruz announced and immediately jumped in the polls.

Paul is an interesting contender because he represents the "Libertarian" wing of the GOP.

Some of the journalists I have talked with wonder if Paul is "really" a Republican. The answer is that in 2012 the Iowa supporters of Paul were active in the GOP. Spiker was Chair of the Iowa Republican Party so how much more Republican can you get!

It's true that there is conflict and tension between several of the "wings" of the GOP.

The most dramatic was revealed recently when Indiana and Arkansas passed "Religious Freedom restoration" laws which allowed businesses to refuse service to people who offended the religious sensibilities and beliefs of business owners. The socially conservative and faith-based Republicans strongly support those laws. The "business" or "establishment" Republicans do not and we saw the business community put pressure on the governors of both states to amend the laws to prohibit discrimination against LGBT customers. The governors jumped to the challenge and asked the legislatures to revise the laws.

In the same way the Rand Paul "brand" of Republicanism is quite different from the Tea Party and Business wings. Paul believes that the US should not use military force and intervention so quickly as a tool for US foreign policy. As a libertarian Republican Paul is also more accepting of young persons social behavior. Moreover, he has gone directly to young voters, liberal college students, and minority venues in an effort to make the GOP relevant among these communities which are a "deficit" in the Republican voter support.

So, we certainly look forward to the injection of Paul's discussion into the 2016 Iowa caucuses.

Please reserve your place in my FREE, online Iowa caucuses course which launches Sept. 1.

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Ted Cruz Launches His Campaign.

Special invitation to you: Reserve a place in my September 1 short online, Iowa Caucuses course.
https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/

Texas Senator Ted Cruz saw the handwriting on the wall this week. Terrible early poll numbers. He was in eighth place with 4% in the latest poll with Jeb Bush leading (16%), followed by Scott Walker and Rand Paul (13% and 12% each).

He decided to change the conversation by declaring his candidacy for president first and cut off his ultra conservative competitors like Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Dr. Ben Carson, and Rick Santorum at the pass. They are the most faith-based and truly right of center contenders competing for the same Iowa voters that he hopes to attract on caucus night a year from now. 

My own feeling is “Good luck Ted.” These other 4 GOP candidates have done a terrific job of connecting with conservative Christians already. So, he’s going to have to cut into their base of support or find new likely caucus voters to add to his team. 

Then he has to deal with Rick Perry a fellow Texan although Cruz’s likely supporters are probably different from Perry because Cruz is an “insurgent” who went against the Texas GOP establishment to win his Senate seat. 

The other question is whether Cruz will be cruzified (pardon the pun) for his opposition to ethanol and the Renewable Fuels Standard. The Des Moines Register "Don’t expect U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz to shuck his opposition to the ethanol-friendly Renewable Fuel Standard.”  

His bigger problem is that he was born in Canada. To be eligible you have to be a “natural born” US citizen. That’s commonly assumed to mean that your mother has to be physically in the United States, an American territory or even a US military base when you see daylight.

His mother was born in the United States and his father was born in Cuba. Cruz argues that because his mother was born in Delaware he is a “natural born” US citizen. Most legal experts agree that he is eligible to run but it’s probable that his opponents in the GOP and if he gets the nomination his Democratic opponent will bring that up. Remember what the Republicans have done to Barack Obama and his citizenship, his Kenyan father, his mother living in Indonesia and other doubts. Unless his GOP opponents and the Democrats are a very forgiving bunch they will no doubt frequently drop hints on this or even do it as in “We forgive Mr. Cruz for being a Cuban born in Canada.”

I would add Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin to the obstacles Cruz faces in his quest for nomination. Walker lived in Iowa. 

Jason Stein of the Journal Sentinel had an excellent column on Walkers early Christian experience. He wrote, “Plainfield, Iowa — Before Scott Walker stood on a national stage, he crawled beneath the wooden pews and white steeple of First Baptist Church. His father [Rev. Llew Walker] preached and his mother ran the Sunday school in this Iowa farm town too small to have a stoplight. Growing up in the parsonage next door — in the shadow of the church — Walker learned his first lessons in faith, politics and living a life on public display.”

Walker even started “… a “Jesus USA Club” to do good deeds and seek donations for a new flag for the Plainfield City Hall,” as Stein reports. 

I know Ted Cruz can’t come even close to that!

BUT, his poll numbers shot up a week after the announcement. According to Real Clear Politics,“He came in third place among nine presidential contenders with 16 percent support, according to a survey from Public Policy Polling (D). In a similar poll near the end of February, Cruz was near the bottom with just 5 percent support.”

Source of the young Walker: http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/walker-learned-early-lessons-at-fathers-iowa-church-b99435429z1-290442461.html

Ted Cruz and Indiana's Religious "Freedom" Law

Preregistration for my free, short, online, Iowa caucuses class is now open. Information here.
https://www.canvas.net/browse/iowa-state/courses/iowa-caucuses

The 2016 Iowa caucuses will be THE most exciting in my lifetime, and yours!

We have an abundance of candidates. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham has just joined the field as the "Foreign Policy" candidate. He says no one else has his experience in foreign affairs. But, just like at the popular deli, he's got a ticket to be served but with a high number. There are lots of other candidates in line in front of him!

This week is Ted Cruz week. He's announced he's running for president, the first to do so. Now he has to keep things HOT or by tomorrow he will be yesterdays news. So, he now has to grab attention.

Today it's his support of Indiana's law that allows businesses to refuse service to anyone on religious grounds. It's clear by the interviews with some of the businesses in Indiana that support the law that it would primarily allow service to be refused to gay and lesbians.

The Indiana law has set off another firestorm. Faith-based leaders such as Bob Vander Plaats of Iowa say this type of law allows people to exercise their first amendment rights to freedom of religion. Opponents of the law including the NCAA, the CEO of Apple, and many politicians and leaders are saying that it is an unacceptable form of discrimination. Boycotts of Indiana and travel bans of employees f some companies to the state of Indiana have already been announced.

Will Cruz's position help him with Iowa's conservative, Christian, Republican caucus voters? That's his intent and we should remember that Texas is also going to pass a similar law. We will keep track of how Cruz does in polls and report back here.


Parody - Taco Ted Cruz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bcW_GlRf-g

A Challenger to Hillary Clinton

Brian Schweitzer for President?

Read about it in the Cedar Rapids Gazette

Steffen Schmidt, guest columnist
MARCH 29, 2015 | 10:00 AM
Cedar Rapids Gazette

Edited and revised. 

I had an interesting chat with a friend recently who is very politically astute. He averred that the Democrats should look at Brian Schweitzer for president in 2016. He thinks Schweitzer could do well in the Iowa caucuses, attracting independent voters and even some disaffected Republicans.

Let's think outside the box for a minute.

Schweitzer was Governor of Montana from 2005-2013. He beat a Republican challenger and became the state’s first Democratic governor in 20 years.

His grandparents on the father’s side were ethnic Germans from Kuchurhan in the Odessa Oblast then in Russia, and now in Ukraine. His mother’s grandparents were Irish. He is a distant cousin of Lawrence Welk. He’s a pretty good match for Iowa where after the 2000 Census there were 1,046,153 Germans, or 35.7 percent of the state’s total population, followed by Irish descendants with a total of 395,905 (13.5 percent) of Iowans. I’m sure Lawrence Welk is also a favorite especially among older Iowans.

Schweitzer got a BS degree in international agronomy from Colorado State University in 1978 and an MS in soil science from Montana State University. He used his education to become an irrigation developer on projects in Africa, Asia, Europe and South America. He spent several years working in Libya and Saudi Arabia, and speaks Arabic.

Schweitzer is a down-to-earth politician who frequently brought his dog, a Border Collie “Jag,” to the State House and to other events.

As governor Schweitzer showed firm fiscal restraint using his veto authority 95 times including 74 bills in the 2011 legislature. None of his vetoes were overridden. He even used a branding iron to veto some bills which he said were “frivolous, unconstitutional and just bad ideas” that were “in direct contradiction to the expressed will of the people of Montana.”

One problem Schweitzer has is that Montana only has three electoral votes so if he swings his state in the November 2016 election it will probably not be enough to put him over the top.

However, as a running mate for, say, Hillary Clinton, he would be an excellent counterbalance to the “effete,” East Coast, “elite” element that has dominated the Democratic Party. I’m sure there would not be any “Pretty in Pink” appearances like Hillary Clinton’s 1994 Q & A press conference on a “tangled Arkansas land deal” and her controversial commodity trades, at which she wore a pink jacket.

Oh, I know that the Clinton’s are from Arkansas. However, aspirationally they are from New York.

It might be a refreshing change to bring a down-to-earth partner to the 2016 Democratic ticket.

• Steffen Schmidt is Professor of Political Science at Iowa State University, author of 11 books, and is launching a free online course on the Iowa caucuses in September. Google caucusesMOOC Comments: Steffenschmidt2005@gmail.com

Iowa Insults

Is this any way to run a campaign?

Gov. Scott walker's new digital media  manager Liz Mair was tweeting insults at Iowans.

Referring to Congressman Steve King's Freedom summit she tweeted, “In other news, I see Iowa is once again embarrassing itself, and the GOP, this morning. Thanks, guys.”Mair added: “The sooner we remove Iowa’s frontrunning status, the better off American politics and policy will be.”

Governor Walker, when are you issuing your apology? (Well, I guess you sort of did by firing her one day after hiring, er um sorry, she "resigned one day later. Now I guess some GOP candidate who won't compete in Iowa can hire her and take advantage of her anti-Iowa position.

Then Ken Langone, one of Chris Christie's most prominent and richest supporters, was just quoted in a WSJ story saying the Iowa caucus system is tantamount to letting a bunch of little old ladies pick a president.

I was asked by a reporter how Iowan's would feel about this insult.

I think Iowans probably feel the same way about being called little old ladies as Chris Christie feels when people call him "just a New Jersey Porky Pig" or a "Hothead Joisey Governor with a collapsing economy."

We love little old ladies in Iowa.

They are much more polite than Christie.

All out aunts and grandmothers are little old ladies.

They vote a lot more than other voters.

They balance their budgets better than lawyer governors.

Christie is welcome to come and have some marshmallow jello and a crock pot Iowa beef stew with little old ladies and try to talk them into supporting him on caucus night!

Governor Christie, when are you issuing your apology to the hard working, politically engaged caucus voters of Iowa?

Iowans are very polite people who don't call names. We listen and work hard to do the right thing especially in election years.

If your candidate can't connect with Iowa voters (little old ladies or others!) then he can't connect with voters in New Hampshire, South Carolina or anywhere else.

Stuff that in your campaign organization hat.

Why are Iowa voters so good at picking winners?

Here is the question I was asked this week by Washington Times reporter Jennifer Harper. "What is it about Iowa voters that enables them to remain such an important and consistent political barometer over the years?"

(Dr. Steffen Schmidt, Fall 2007 ISU pol sci department newsletter)

 My answer is below.

1. Smarts. Iowa has been one of the most literate states and tops in education. Education leads people to be more interested in politics and that leads to taking the process seriously at least for the hard core political geeks.

2. Heritage. Iowa is one of those states with a very high level of "civic culture" also called "civic republicanism."  Researches such as Tom W. Rice, University of Iowa and Jan L. Feldman have noted in the article "Civic Culture and Democracy from Europe to America" that the historical ancestry of Europeans from certain countries produces a very high level of civic culture in their descendants in the United States. See the article in The Journal of Politics, Vol. 59, No. 4, Nov., 1997. A large % of the population in Iowa and some other states is descended from these politically and "civically active" societies. These American states, including Iowa, are characterized by high voter turnout in most elections. "Civic Culture and Government Performance in the American States," by Tom W. Rice and Alexander F. Sumberg is also worth another read. It needs to be revisited!

3. Political engagement. See above. The "civic culture" includes an almost guilt driven desire to volunteer, participate, help the neighbor, improve the community, and participate in politics. "Civic engagement is about the right of the people to define the public good, determine the policies by which they will seek the good, and reform or replace institutions that do not serve that good." See the book Globalizing Civil Society: Reclaiming Our Right to Power, by David C. Korten, (1998). Harvard University professor Robert D. Putnam has written excellent studies on civic engagement including the bestseller Bowling Alone.

4. The "Heartland attitude." Because Iowa has a small population and there is still a lot of "neighbor relations" - on county roads (where I drive from my farm - we still hold up a couple of fingers and greet cars coming at and past us just in case it's a neighbor! When you grow up on a farm or a small town you have to help each other because it's a rough life out in the country. So, a sense of cooperation and active engagement in improving the community, the township, and county is very strong.

5. Finally, Iowa has been very purple and so even though minorities are a smaller % of the population, we have liberals, moderates, conservatives, and "very" conservative voters. That's why Obama, Hillary, Santorum AND Mitt Romney could all do very well in Iowa in the same year!

Oh, I forgot to add this. Iowa, especially Des Moines, is also a great test market for products, including things like testing different flavors of Jello. Or, testing presidential contenders.

Question: "What will YOU do about modernizing weapons systems.?"

At Republican leader and ag + ethanol businessman Bruce Rastetter's Agricultural Summit we heard from some Republicans what their position is on ethanol, genetically modified crops, immigration, and other agricultural issues. Before that we heard about gay marriage, abortion, and other social issues at Congressman Steve King's Freedom Summit.

Now we need to hear from them about their position on the future of American weapons systems and national defense at Dr. Politics (that's me) Future of the Military Summit which I am launching here. 

Many of you saw my column in the Ames Tribune and sent me "atta boy's."

Presidential candidates, here is the issue:

"... we are still basically using weapons from World War I, like barbed wire, tanks, rifles, ships, and airplanes"

Steffen Schmidt: Where is our ‘Enterprise’ when we need it?

By Steffen Schmidt, March 9, 2015, Ames Tribune

This week at the gym, I was watching an episode of “Star Trek.”

Kirk and crew take the Enterprise and end up in a life and death war with hostile Klingons. They were using a “directed-energy weapon.” 

It’s a weapon that emits energy in an aimed direction but without the need of a projectile like a shell. The weapon transfers energy to a target for a number of potential effects such as stun, heat, kill, or vaporize.

Of course as we all know, “Phasers were the most common and standard directed energy weapons in the arsenal of Starfleet. Most Phasers were classified as particle weapons and fire nadion particle beams. But some like the Ferengi hand Phasers were classified as plasma weapons and fired forced plasma beams.” See Memory-Alpha.org.

We also know that Kirk, Spock, Bones, Scotty, Uhura, Sulu and others had amazing platforms from which to launch their operations, including the Enterprise or Constitution class Starships, Daedalus class vessels, and the Galaxy Class ship USS Venture which participated in the Battle for Deep Space 9, First Battle of Chin’toka, and Battle of Cardassia, part of Battle Group Omega sent to intercept Reman warship Scimitar.

These ships were instrumental to the Federation defending civilization and repelling the threats from a host of admirable adversaries like Klingon General Chang, a Vulcan named Sybok, the Gorn who are angry, hissing, lizard-men, and of course, the dreaded Borg, which is “… a teeming collective of countless cyborg drones, all ruled by a single hivemind.”

Since the TV series “Star Trek” launched in 1966, we have been introduced to existential moments when civilization hung in the balance and very bad aliens threatened its very existence. 

In the 1979 film, “Star Trek: The Motion Picture,” a mysterious and immensely powerful alien cloud called V’Ger approaches Earth, destroying everything in its path. Admiral James T. Kirk … assumes command of his previous starship — the recently refitted USS Enterprise — to lead it on a mission to save the planet and determine V’​Ger’s origins.

Throughout it all we came to expect and even “understand” the engineering and science behind the marvelous craft and weapons. For example, we all know that, “In the 2270s, phaser power systems of Federation starships were redesigned to channel power directly from the warp core.” We actually want to understand this engineering.

I believe that thousand of similarly technical specs on every aspect of “Star Trek” and also “Star Wars” raised our expectations about how to deal with real dangerous enemies here on Earth. The solution we learned is, you bring new technology and smart, brave heroes to bear on the threat, you fight mightily, and in the end, crush the enemy and neutralize the threat to civilization.

Today, we face a cruel and unusual adversary in ISIS, which could easily be a new interplanetary enemy in “Star Trek.” It even has a character, Jihadi John, who could be inserted into a science fiction episode as an unusually cruel and dangerous enemy from an incomprehensible planet.

As we anxiously wait for a solution to the Middle East crisis I believe we are despondent that there seem to be no answers to the threat. Our leaders are, on a daily basis, more and more confused and seem helpless in the face of this challenge.

We ask ourselves, why can’t we move one or more of our powerful Starships into place over the enemy and issue an ultimatum. When they refuse to surrender, we deploy our Transphasic torpedoes, Isokinetic Cannons, Trilithium resin, or if necessary the Varon-T disruptors and wipe out the enemy?

Instead, we are still basically using weapons from World War I, like barbed wire, tanks, rifles, ships and airplanes, which were first used in that terrible war almost 100 years ago. 

Oh sure, these old weapons systems have been “improved” and made shiny but at the core they are obsolete. Our enemies have the same weapons as we do. That’s a strategic disaster. 

A “Federation-level” power such as the United States must have new, game changing technology if it expects to win and survive.

If Congress can ever stop hyperventilating about irrelevancies maybe they can ponder losing the technology race in which we find ourselves. If we don’t, I guarantee that soon the new Klingons will rule the Earth.

Reserve a place in my FREE Internet class on the Iowa Caucuses at:

- See more at: http://amestrib.com/opinion/steffen-schmidt-where-our-enterprise-when-we-need-it#sthash.CQUoenoU.dpuf

The REAL significance of the caucuses

A light bulb went off over my head this weekend.

The Iowa Agricultural Presidential Summit was a bold event with an estimated 250 media reporters and bloggers. That's as many as come to the Hawkeye State on caucus night! Unfortunately the event was overshadowed by the Hillary Clinton e mail story and by the anniversary of the Selma march which sucked up a lot of the news coverage.

Twenty four hours after the Summit it was fading. The news cycle shelf life is so short!

No Democratic Presidential contenders showed up.

Ted Cruz was resplendent in his HUGE cowboy boots which overwhelmed him because the camera angle for most shots was low and the boots grabbed my attention. Cruz's position on government programs such as the blended fuel standards - the Renewable Fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel that are mixed in with the petroleum products. He opposes big government and feels market forces should dictate the success of wind and biofuels.

Governor Scott Walker got good vibes but I didn't quite understand what his position is on government programs sustaining ethanol, biofuels, and wind energy. I think he's opposed.

Mike Huckabee used humor to hide his position opposing government subsidies for wind and ethanol by saying that "eternal life" should only be for people and dogs. In other words not for wind and ethanol. They should die? I think.

I'm not sure how Republican caucus participants in February of 2016 are going to use the results of the Ag Summit in their decision of whom to support.There was no real scorecard although the Des Moines register did a fabulous job reporting. And as one Republican consultant told me on Saturday night, "The answers were often convoluted and weasel talk."

I've carefully scrutinized as much of the response to the summit as I could and here is my conclusion. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush got more attention and positive coverage than any of the other contenders.

Bush was the star of new Third District Republican Congressman David Young fundraiser. Young is a close protegee of Republican Senator Chuck Grassley. By my calculation that means that Young and Grassley are sending out an early signal about their support for Bush. You don't have an event such as this fundraiser at such a visible moment and so early unless you are sending a strong message.

The national news media correctly pointed out that the conservative wing of the GOP does not favor or like Bush because of the "family dynasty" and because Bush supports immigration "reform" (read decriminalizing illegals who came to the US as young children) and because Bush supports Common Core education standards (or something like that controlled at the state level which he stressed in Iowa.) But Bush is still likely to capture the establishment Republicans.

Let me give you the new insight we reached at the Iowa Association of Political Scientists held at Drake University on March 6 as the Ag Summit wrapped up.
 

Our panel discussion consisted of Dennis Goldford and Rachel Caufield of Drake University, myself, and Kelli Brown, Content Strategist, Digital and Multimedia, The Des Moines Register. As we explored the intricacies of the caucuses, a light bulb went off over my head. 

I suddenly realized that the Iowa caucuses are so important because they set off early political events such as Congressman Steve King's Freedom Summit, Rastetter's Agriculture Summit, followed by a number of other political events including more summits and the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll which would not exist if it were not for the Iowa caucuses. 

There are NO sequences of events like this in other states. The Iowa presidential caucuses are a catalyst for so many other interesting and useful presidential selection activities. That alone makes the caucuses irreplaceable.

NOW it's time for you to reserve a space in my short, fun, and FREE Internet class on the caucuses that launches in September.  Go here - reserve your spot:

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The campaign season has started ... again.

We just finished taping the interview with Iowa Governor Terry Branstad for the Iowa Caucuses MOOC course. He was there at the beginning of the Iowa Caucuses. I WAS THERE AT THE beginning too! We reminisced.

His official ceremonial office where we taped is fabulous as you can see. (Yes I know the picture is running off the edge but you need to see it this size!)

The interview was really wonderful because the governor loves and believes in the Iowa caucuses. It showed in his enthusiasm and excitement at reminiscing. It will be prominent in the FREE Internet course I'm teaching starting September 1. YOU can sign up for it and reserve a free spot at:

https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/

This is also the weekend when the Agricultural Summit takes place in Des Moines. A large group of Republican presidential potential candidates will get on the stage and each talk for 20 minutes about agriculture.

The meeting is actually very important since Ag is a HUGE part of the American economy. Corn, ethanol, soy beans, biodiesel, wind power (which is ag because the turbines sit on farmland) are all on the agenda.

Crucial to all of this are the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), a mandate that requires a certain amount of the largely corn-based fuel to be blended into the gasoline. That was established to reduce US dependence on imported oil. It was also seen as a way to include a "cleaner" fuel - ethanol - to gasoline.

Corn growers increased their acreage. Investors, many local farmers, put their money into ethanol plants which are very expensive. The DuPont biofuels plant in Nevada, Iowa will cost $200 million, and produce 30 million gallons of cellulosic biofuels. Expected to be completed in mid-2014, the new facility produce cellulosic ethanol from corn stover (what's left over after harvesting and combining corn.".

I also saw a report that "renewable fuels support 852,000 Jobs and $46 billion in wages for America’s workers."

If the federal RFS mandate is reduced or eliminated  the demand for biofuels (ethanol) and for corn will sharply decline. Already corn prices are half of what they were a year ago and companies such as John Deere which builds agricultural machinery, has already begun major layoffs.

SO, the Republican contenders for the White House (no Democrats have accepted the invitation to the summit) will be scrutinized for their knowledge about and position on various agricultural policies.

The Agriculture Summit is being sponsored by Republican Party patron Bruce Rastetter who is a major force in farming and in renewable fuels.

On my way out of the State House in Des Moines I took a picture of the rotunda (below). If you have never been you MUST go to the State Capitol and marvel over its splendor. The best museums in the world have nothing over this architectural marvel. 

 

"Branding" the 2016 candidates as new and improved?

 First: Breaking news. You can now actually enroll and save a spot in my free Internet class on the Iowa caucuses. The first session starts September 1, 2015. Please go here:

https://www.canvas.net/browse/iowa-state/courses/iowa-caucuses

Iowa View

Steffen Schmidt 11:09 p.m. CST February 23, 2015 Des Moines Register

Consumers like to know their product.

If it’s Coke, they want Coke not “New Coke.”

The latest news is that former Sen. Hillary Clinton has hired a public relations firm to help her define herself. That seems to be the main reason she hasn’t declared her 2016 candidacy for president — she’s still trying to figure out who she is.

Some are shocked at this. Actually, it’s not such an odd thing in politics.

Think of the candidates running for president in 2016 as a product. After all, they are offering their signature qualities and asking consumers of political leadership and ideology to buy their product and not the “other” products available on the market. I’m assuming there will be at least two or three alternatives to Hillary Clinton on the Democratic Party side. We know Republicans will have a bonanza of alternatives.

Selling the product requires each candidate to first of all “brand” herself or himself. The marketing field explains that, “Your brand is your promise to your customer. It tells them what they can expect from your products and services, and it differentiates your offering from that of your competitors. Your brand is derived from who you are, who you want to be and whom people perceive you to be.” This is precisely what political candidates must do. Especially the part about “whom you want people to perceive you to be.”

Second, candidates then need to develop “brand loyalty.” That means assuring that people will come back to the same candidate, i.e. the same brand.

Companies and candidates who successfully cultivate loyal customers also develop brand ambassadors. These are consumers who will buy into a certain brand and then talk positively about it among their friends. “This is free word-of-mouth marketing for the company and is often very effective,” according to Entrepreneur.com. This is clearly also the optimal outcome for political candidates. We call it “going viral,” which can be either digital or simply analog by word of mouth.

According to Bloomberg BusinessWeek, MIT Sloan School marketing professor Renée Richardson Gosline has noted that to inspire loyalty you need to offer a unique feeling not just a vague idea. A product, i.e. a candidate, must fit a specific brand identity and send a signal of what that brand is and “… carry the same brand identity signal across the entire product.” The brand label must not “dilute its identity.” That means candidates need to drill down on their identity, reinforce it, refine it but not swerve too far away from the brand the consumers know.

My best example of this is former Vice President Al Gore. When he ran for president in 2000, one of the observation by the media, pundits and even many voters was that he “does a perfect imitation of a tree.” In other words he was stiff and conventional.

I followed that race for the White House very closely and it soon became evident that someone was messing with Al Gore, trying to transform him. The first thing we noticed was that he suddenly started wearing a Palm Pilot on his belt.

Palm Pilot was a digital organizer launched in 1992 with which you could manage your calendar and other information. Remember that Gore was said to have “invented the Internet,” which he didn’t actually do. As a matter of fact, I remember stories reporting that President Bill Clinton and Gore had to be taught how to use a computer. So, Gore’s handlers decided to make him “cool” and “techie” by slapping a Palm on his waist.

Then, a few months later at a big rally in the Memorial Union at Iowa State University, I had a front-row seat. Gore emerged on stage and I immediately noticed that he was wearing “Earth tones.” That must have been part of his evolution to an environmentalist which, of course, culminated in the publishing of his book, “An Inconvenient Truth,” and the Nobel Prize shared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

But, I also noticed that he was wearing super-tight pants, which startlingly accentuated his buttocks. That was unfamiliar and out of character.

When these changes became clear to the media, and even to voters, the reaction was that people liked the “old Gore” much better even if he was boring like a tree.

In other words, they liked the existing brand, the “Old Coke” better than the “rebranded” Gore, i.e. the “New Coke.”

I’ll be watching the 2016 contenders closely to see how they brand themselves. Especially Hillary Clinton.

The Democratic race for the White House started last night!

We know that the Republican race for the White House started on January 24, 2015 with the Freedom Summit organized by Congressman Steve King and Citizens United.

The Democratic race for a win in the Iowa Presidential Caucuses started last night, February 21, 2015 in Ames, Iowa.

That was the night that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders packed the house at the Story County Democrats Soup Supper. I've been to many Republican and Democratic Party events in my 45 year's at Iowa State University. I have never seen a more energized crowd.

While there was a "Ready for Hillary" table, it was clear that many of the attendees were really "Ready for Anyone But Hillary."

Sanders never mentioned Clinton but he railed against social inequality, the threat of the Koch Brothers billion dollar political offensive, the income gap that has driven down real middle class salaries, and Wall Street.

His message was a well disguised ambush of Clinton's "stealth campaign" for the Iowa Presidential caucuses season.

Democrats have been chafing at the bit for their White House race to start, anxious that the Republicans have dominated the agenda.

As I talked with many Democratic leaders at the soup dinner it became clear that there is deep anxiety among Democrats and also independent caucus attendees (they were very prominent at the event) about the potential Democratic field for 2016. The question is still asked "Steffen, do you think in the end Hillary will run?"

The other question, of course, is "Steffen, who else besides Hillary do you think will run?"

I personally believe at this moment that several Democrats will compete for the three top places in the Iowa caucuses: Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, and Martin O'Malley will compete in Iowa. I don't think that Elizabeth Warren will throw her hat in the ring.

There was relief at the possibility of a vigorous competition in the Democratic Party contest.  A coronation of Clinton is universally seen as a very bad idea.

Sanders is a passionate and focused speaker. His message is no doubt the most liberal of any 2016 contender. Many Democrats feel that this is just what the party needs to juxtapose itself against the Republican conservative message. I heard more than once that 2016 may be the year for populism and not for more "Clinton New Democrat" triangulation.

I think if Sanders organizes his campaign professionally and gets good advice from experienced Iowans not some out of town, slick, professional campaign managers, he can give Hillary a run for the money and she will have a bushel basket full of money.

More in my next blog on out of state "professional" campaign managers.

(all photographs 2015, (c) Schmidt, SEAS LLC)

Iowa Caucuses MOOC progressing nicely

I'm delighted to tell you that The MOOC on the Iowa Presidential caucuses is developing just as we hoped.

Our delivery platform will be Canvas. It is a terrific delivery system that is clean and has great usability. We will share some more information once wee mount our MOOC page. (Of course, the caucuses class will not actually open up until September and then it will be repeated several times for your convenience and pleasure!)

We are on schedule with or HD production company shooting interviews with a wide variety of interesting people who are providing excellent insights into the Iowa caucuses.

One of our experts is Raluca Cozma of the Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication at Iowa State University. (Shown with Prof Schmidt in this picture)

She is an expert in the field of political communication and offers some very exciting insights into the process of Presidential candidate selection.

Her easily understandable but startling research findings will be of special significance for people in the communications media enrolled in the class.

Our excellent professional video team has been hard at work. we are using three HD cameras and two professional videographers and the full compliment of lighting and other equipment. The video interviews will be first class in content but also production value. The team is with B & G Productions http://www.bgvideoproductions.com/ (See picture Below)

We also conducted several other interviews which we will be sharing with you soon.

The project has also started rolling out an elaborate and very professional marketing initiative. This is designed to reach a large audience of people who would be interested in this Iowa Presidential caucuses class.

We have already heard from journalists, from professionals in the political consulting field, activist citizens from both major parties, and college students.

Many of the college students are excited about earning a certificate at the end of the MOOC and being able to include this innovative class on their résumé.

 One of the surprises in designing and now developing this MOOC is the attention to detail that is necessary to "get it 100% right." In the next picture Steffen Schmidt is getting some "remodeling" of the face and University of Northern Iowa Professor Chris Larimer, who was interviewed in this shoot at the Political Science department at UNI, is next in line for some video makeup.

We are VERY excited to share with you that Governor Terry Branstad has agreed to an interview and we will be picking his brain for the substantial insights of the longest serving governor (six terms) and a "two century" governor (he is serving now and served in the last century.)

Stay tuned for more to come.

In the meantime reserve your place for the FREE online class which will launch in September by going to our web site at:

https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/

The Iowa Straw Poll Rocks!

Iowa Caucuses and Straw Poll as relevant as ever
by Steffen Schmidt
CityView, Des Moines, 2/18/2015

Every four years, the contrarians come out of the woodwork trashing the Iowa Presidential Caucuses and the Ames Straw Poll.

Retired Drake journalism school professor Herb Strentz had his opportunity at this Whack-a-Mole in Cityview. In “Adieu to the relevance” of the caucuses and poll, he avers that Congressman Steve King’s Freedom Summit is proof of the irrelevance of Iowa. He quotes the left-wing wag Scott Galindez, featured in Anarchist publications such as The Rag Blog, who wrote that Iowans are “God-fearing, pig-castrating, gun toting whackos.”

First of all, Professor Strentz may have missed the fact that there is no such a thing as “Iowans.” There are Independent-No-Party voters, there are lots of Democrats (Iowa is probably still purple), there are seriously lefty Bernie Sanders Democrats, there are Libertarian-Rand Paul Republican Iowans, and there are even lots of moderate Republicans or Mitt Romney would not have tied for first place in the last Iowa caucuses. Iowa is much more diverse than the fool out of town critics can ever imagine.

By the way, in Iowa we have members of the Evangelical Lutheran Church, Lutheran Church–Missouri Synod, Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod, and, for all I know, other diverse branches of the Lutheran faith. Now that’s diversity!

Second, the Iowa caucuses are a terrific testing ground for candidates. They can hone their skills, meet lots of self-confident people at cafés, community centers, the Iowa State Fair, and people’s homes, people who will straight out ask hard questions with no intermediaries. And poor candidates like Rick Santorum can beat a rich businessman like Mitt Romney by burning up shoe leather and going to 99 counties shaking hands and selling himself.

Third, Strentz misses the point completely that Iowa allows us and the massive media horde that come here to assess the character and communications style and skills of contenders. Anyone watching Steve King’s Summit from “gavel-to-gavel” could not help but see the differences between Gov. Scott Walker and Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina and Sara Palin.

Fourth, the Ames Straw Poll is a terrific, fun political festival. The media loves it. Those attending the event (including me) love it. The Iowa Republican Party loves it since it raises a ton of money. Ames and Story County love it because these fool politicians leave a big chunk of money with us. It’s called a Republican stimulus package for us.

Fifth, Joni Ernst WON the Senate race. No matter how much the left dislikes her, the Democrats blew that race and almost every other race in 2014. That’s how elections work, Professor. The majority works hard, turns out large numbers and wins elections. I recommend that the Democrats carefully study Joni’s campaign. They will learn how to win elections.

And, of course, the East Coast dandies who write about the Iowa caucuses have their own axe to grind, and their own “groupies” to satisfy.

I, for one, am a huge fan of the Iowa Caucuses and the Straw Poll. They create political excitement. They show what highly motivated voters are as opposed to the low information and low intensity voters who turn out for primaries.

Let the candidates roll in!

Join me this September for a fun, online, FREE class on the Iowa Caucuses (and Straw Poll)!

Reserve your place here:
https://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/


Steffen Schmidt is originator and co-author of the largest selling American government college textbook and Professor of Political Science at Iowa State University. His Iowa Caucuses online course launches in September.

Scott Walker Disappoints.

When Gov Scott Walker left Iowa after Congressman Steve King's Freedom Summit he looked like a winner.

Then he went to London.

Wassup with the "London Pilgrimage?'

Chris Christie went and got mostly bad press when he punked on measles vaccination saying it was up to parents, then waffling again and saying kids should be vaccinated. Then he "Went Christie" which is the expression we use when he loses it in front of media. When a reporter tried a follow up question he told the journalist to basically shut up and stop asking questions.

Now Scott Walker goes to London for a "trade mission."  The headlines from that ill fated journey were "Gov. Scott Walker 'Punts' on Foreign Policy, Evolution Questions in London." At the policy institute Chatham House,he repeatedly refused to answer foreign policy questions.

He was asked about Ukraine and ISIS and his answer basically was "I just don’t think you talk about foreign policy when you’re on foreign soil.”

When asked about evolution he basically sided with creationists "Both science & my faith dictate my belief that we are created by God."

It's still early and both Christie and Scott said the right thing for conservative Republican base voters. So maybe their "stumble" will have no consequences going forward. However, every little bump in the road can turn off independent ("No-Party") voters such as the New Hampsherites who can vote in the "open primary" election there.

Some years ago Mitt Romney also did a London pilgrimage and insulted London by saying he was not sure if they could handle the Olympics because of security issues. London Mayor Boris Johnson raked Romney across the coals. It was another bad London "karma" moment. 

We are still investigating why these politicians think they need to go to London. We now refer to it as the "London Curse."

I would suggest changing cities. Dublin or Berlin would be nice.

Schmidt on Scott Walker

Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University and expert on the Iowa caucuses, said tying Wisconsin with the phrase "free and prosperous" could be an "amazing" campaign slogan for a national race.

Schmidt said Walker's emphasis on lean government, school reform and rejection of Common Core academic standards check some "must-do" boxes for any Republicans hoping to form a favorable impression with conservatives around the country."

"Schmidt agreed that Walker's salute to the military — proclaiming that "red, white and blue runs even deeper" than green and gold, the Packers' colors — and his condemnation of the terror attacks sounded presidential.
"He is well positioned now for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina if he decides to fully throw his hat in the ring for 2016," Schmidt said.

"Gov. Walker is on my list of the five strongest contenders for 2016," said Steffen Schmidt, a longtime professor of political science at Iowa State University and expert on the Iowa caucuses."

The Iowa caucuses are tentatively scheduled for Feb. 1, 2016. More than one year out, Schmidt predicts Walker will shine in the Hawkeye State.
Walker has made a few visits to Iowa over the last several years, giving speeches at Republican fundraisers and other events. He lived in the northeastern part of the state for seven years as a child. And there's already an IowansForWalker.com website up and running.
"He should do well in the Iowa caucuses, coming in first, second or third, which is where candidates need to place to have a chance getting the nomination," Schmidt said.
 (Picture from ScottWalker.com)

Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/writers/jessie-opoien/iowa-politics-expert-predicts-top-three-finish-for-scott-walker/article_44d79581-bf2e-565b-b080-ec2af23777d5.html#ixzz3RMjOj6Lr

Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/writers/jessie-opoien/iowa-politics-expert-predicts-top-three-finish-for-scott-walker/article_44d79581-bf2e-565b-b080-ec2af23777d5.html#ixzz3RMjDsqq7

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Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/was-scott-walker-s-state-of-the-state-a-presidential/article_a4173bb8-9b97-11e4-9a8b-8b2f6b0e0dd2.html#ixzz3RMiyAVKF

Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/was-scott-walker-s-state-of-the-state-a-presidential/article_a4173bb8-9b97-11e4-9a8b-8b2f6b0e0dd2.html#ixzz3RMiRsdyo

Iowa Political Caucuses: Reporters, Politicians, and Lies

Iowa Political Caucuses: Reporters, Politicians, and Lies: --> Reporter Brian Williams is temporarily stepping away from the "NBC Nightly News” because he somehow “misremembered” a...

Reporters, Politicians, and Lies

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Reporter Brian Williams is temporarily stepping away from the "NBC Nightly News” because he somehow “misremembered” an incident in a helicopter that came under fire while he was on assignment in Iraq in 2003. The evidence now shows that was not the case. Williams apologized.

Williams also he said bodies were floating past his hotel in New Orleans during Katrina in 2006 but there was very little flooding in the French Quarter where he was staying.

Then, “NBC News anchor Brian Williams told differing stories about a 1994 interview he conducted with Nelson Mandela just after his election to the presidency of South Africa. During an event at The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation on Feb. 8, 2008, an audience member asked Williams to name the highlights of his career. “I was the first person to walk into the hotel room of Nelson Mandela the morning he woke up and learned he’d been elected president,” said Williams.” 

Apparently there were lots of discrepancies and “illusions” in this claim. 

Hillary Clinton also lied. 

Do you remember the story about Hillary Clinton? 

“On March 25, 2008, Hillary Clinton said that she and her daughter, Chelsea, were shot at in Bosnia in 1996. After the claims were disputed, Clinton said she has a “different memory” of the events that occurred.” 

You thought Benghazi was going to be a problem! This is going to be a BIG problem for Clinton.

And people say the Iowa Caucuses, First in the Nation, thin out the field of Presidential contenders!

Not so. Presidential wannabes weed themselves out by lying, making up stuff, and having “oops!’ moments.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie had at least one “oops” moment.

This week on a trip to England to boost his foreign policy credentials he was felled by the measles. When asked about the US measles outbreak and vaccinations the “Big Guy” (that’s not my term I saw it in numerous media reports) decided to waffle and say that there should be parental choice. When reporters pressed him he told them to basically shut up and he was not taking any more questions.

Then the New York Times ran a damning article about Christie and his adventures flying in private airplanes to venues, being feted by the King of Jordan, champagne in the desert and staying at an incredibly expensive hotel or as they said “The rooms in luxurious Kempinski hotels had cost about $30,000.”

Add all of this and then there was Rand Paul’s statement that vaccines should be a family choice and you can see why I am SO excited about the 2016 Iowa Caucuses!

I want to personally invite you as an InsiderIowa.com friend to join my free Iowa Presidential Caucuses Internet class starting in September. Reserve a space. No obligation, at http://www.iowacaucusesmooc.org/

Chris Christie's worst week as Presidential contender.

When you run for President or are thinking about running everything becomes an issue.

* In the News: Gov. Chris Christie's (R) trips on a plane owned by Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones.

* More stories about many lavish trips on multiple private planes paid for by others.

* "a "trade mission" to Israel in 2012 on a private plane paid for by billionaire casino owner Sheldon Adelson on which Christie reportedly had his "own bedroom." (PS. "At the time, Adelson was lobbying [the state of New Jersey] on gambling legislation."
* He went on a trip to Jordan "... that was paid for by that country's monarch, King Abdullah. It included two parties at the king's home, a "champagne reception" in the desert, and rooms "in luxurious Kempinski hotels had cost about $30,000."

Then there was a measles outbreak in the United States. Christie was in London, on a trade mission. He was asked about vaccinations.

Bloomberg View reported that "He said his four kids were vaccinated, but that "that parents need to have some measure of choice in things as well. So that’s the balance that the government has to decide." That laissez-faire approach plays well with the keep your hands off my guns, my textbooks and my kids constituency he may need for the Iowa caucuses, as well as some New Age liberals he'll never get, but not necessarily with the 99 percent of us who thought the disease had been eradicated in the U.S. Christie’s office was soon out with a correction, saying there was “no question kids should be vaccinated.”"

I asked some of my friends if Iowa Republicans really do not believe in mandated vaccination and discovered that most think that's just bull.

When reporters tried to ask Christie some more questions he snarked back at them "... what part of no questions don’t you understand?!”

So now all of a sudden vaccinations have become a huge political issue. The GOP contenders are dividing up with Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush in favor of vaccination, Rand Paul coming out for parental rights and no government mandate, and some others running away fast from the issue and hiding. Of course, Michelle Bachman believes that vaccinations cause mental retardation but she's not running for President in 2016.

The 2016 caucuses are already providing the ammunition for weeding out potential contenders.

More at: http://www.businessinsider.com/chris-christies-luxury-travel-and-private-flights-2015-2

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-06/christie-and-paul-come-down-with-measles